Natural Rubber Daily: Hot Futures, Cold Trading — A Two-Track Market(Sep 30)
Natural Rubber Daily: Hot Futures, Cold Trading — A Two-Track Market
On September 30, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market stood at USD 2,600/ton, up USD 130/ton from the previous trading day.
Overseas Supply
In Thailand, rainfall disturbances in the southern region have been more frequent than in the northeast, limiting supply growth. Latex prices remain firm. Second-level traders are holding back sales, while processing plants are bidding aggressively for cup lump, driving up raw material prices.
In Vietnam, production areas continue to experience overcast and rainy conditions, with intermittent rainfall disrupting tapping progress. Overall output fluctuates with weather conditions, and expectations of periodic supply contraction support firm raw material prices within the week.
Domestic Supply
In Yunnan, no rainfall has been recorded, and latex output is gradually increasing, though the overall volume increase has not been as optimistic as expected. Approaching the holiday period, different processing plants have varied purchasing strategies, resulting in both high and low prices in the market.
In Hainan, weather conditions remain favorable for tapping operations. Combined with high price incentives, farmers' tapping willingness is strong, and the island's raw material supply is showing seasonal peak production levels.
Demand Side
With the National Day holiday approaching, some enterprises are entering the final stage of pre-maintenance shutdowns, which will further drag down tire industry operating rates. A few large enterprises will maintain normal operations to ensure routine product supply.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Summary
Currently, the upward shift in futures prices is providing some support to the spot market, with holders raising their offer prices accordingly. However, follow-through on the demand side remains weak, with no significant improvement downstream. Purchasing sentiment has turned cautious, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a needs-based procurement pace. Actual transaction performance remains soft, and the market is exhibiting a divergent pattern of "strong futures, weak spot" — a two-track market where paper gains and physical trading move in opposite directions.
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