Natural Rubber Daily: The "Confidence" Behind Rubber Fades(Oct 14)
Natural Rubber Daily: The "Confidence" Behind Rubber Fades
Index
On October 14, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was 2,590 USD/ton, down 35 USD/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Overseas
Thailand: Some producing areas have been hit by severe flooding, compounded by processing plants aggressively purchasing raw materials at high prices, driving up raw material costs.
Vietnam: The producing region continues to experience rainy weather, with intermittent rainfall disrupting tapping progress. Overall output fluctuates with weather conditions, and expectations of periodic supply contraction support firm raw material prices during the week.
Domestic
Yunnan: Weather conditions remain favorable, and production continues to increase. Whole-latex factory orders are robust, with raw material prices maintaining high levels.
Hainan: Weather conditions have improved, and tapping operations are gradually resuming. New rubber supply is showing seasonal increases. Supported by order demand and profit factors, local processing plants continue to bid up raw material prices.
Demand
According to industry sources, some enterprises are gradually increasing their operating rates, but persistently high raw material prices are restraining the production capacity utilization of tire manufacturers to some extent. A few large enterprises maintain satisfactory operating rates with moderate finished goods inventory, primarily ensuring order fulfillment and routine product supply.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Outlook
The support for the natural rubber market is weakening, with downward pressure gradually emerging. On the cost side, as weather conditions improve both domestically and internationally, tapping disruptions in producing areas are diminishing, limiting further upward momentum in raw material procurement prices. The cost support for rubber has loosened, and the previous rally logic is weakening at the margin.
Inventory and demand-side pressures are rising simultaneously. Qingdao spot inventories have shown an accumulation trend after the holiday, with supply pressure increasing at the margin. Downstream enterprises have limited capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials, and their cautious procurement approach further weakens bullish market sentiment.
Overall, the loosening of cost support and weak demand are reinforcing each other. In the short term, rubber prices may continue to weaken amid wide-range fluctuations.
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