Carbon Black Daily: Costs Collapse, Demand Retreats(Sep 30)

Carbon Black Daily: Costs Collapse, Demand Retreats

According to data from Tuduoduo, the carbon black price index on September 30 stood at 10,071.5, down 426.5 from the previous trading day.

Carbon Black Market Prices

Carbon Black Market Impact Analysis

1. Upstream Raw Materials: Coal tar prices in Shandong region stood at RMB 5,500/ton; in Shanxi region at RMB 5,300/ton; and in Hebei region at RMB 5,510/ton. New contract prices for domestic high-temperature coal tar have been successively announced, with prices showing significant declines across the board.

2. Carbon Black Supply: Operating rates at sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market have declined. New contract prices for raw material coal tar are trending downward, and previously high raw material prices led to low inventory levels. Downstream tire enterprises have reduced procurement volumes, dampening market operating enthusiasm. During this period, a manufacturer in Shandong underwent maintenance, and a major North China plant reduced operating loads, leading to a decline in carbon black market operating data.

3. Downstream Demand: With the National Day holiday approaching, some enterprises are entering the final stage of pre-maintenance shutdowns, which will further drag down tire industry operating rates. A few large enterprises will maintain normal operations to ensure routine product supply.

Market Summary

The weak pattern in the carbon black market has been further established. On the cost side, the decline in raw material coal tar is gradually widening, and cost support continues to weaken, exerting a clear drag on carbon black prices. On the demand side, the number of downstream enterprises conducting pre-holiday maintenance is increasing, procurement demand is contracting, and price-suppression intentions are becoming more pronounced. Actual transaction volumes in the market are limited, with downstream maintaining only needs-based restocking for negotiations, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere. With the dual bearish factors of collapsing costs and weakening demand combined, carbon black new contract prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.

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