Natural Rubber Market Weakens Mildly

Index

On July 14, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1745 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market:

In terms of spot market supply: Abroad: The overall raw material supply in Thailand has been steadily increasing, and the second-hand dealers have gradually released their inventory. Factories have no intention to increase the price for purchases, and the price of raw materials has fallen; there are still precipitation disturbances in some parts of Vietnam's production areas, but the overall supply shows a stable incremental pattern, and its raw material price trend has diverged. Due to poor orders and profits, the purchase price of glue has weakened, but the center of gravity of cup rubber prices has risen slightly.

Domestically: The weather in Yunnan production area has improved, and the output of glue has increased, but the concentrated milk factory remains strong, and the acquisition resistance of the standard rubber factory still exists, and the raw material price remains strong; the weather in Hainan production area has improved, and the output of raw materials on the island has resumed seasonal growth, but it is not as good as the same period last year. In order to ensure its own production and order delivery, local processing plants maintain a state of increasing the price for raw materials.

Demand: It is understood that the production schedule of maintenance enterprises has gradually returned to the normal level recently, which has boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. The overall shipment performance of enterprises has been basically stable recently, and the output has decreased, which is conducive to the destocking of finished product inventory of enterprises. The inventory of some semi-steel tire enterprises has declined significantly.

List of futures and spot prices

Market forecast

Today, the closing price of the main rubber contract futures market was weak and volatile, and the spot quotation followed the narrow adjustment of the market. On the supply and demand side, the expectation of increasing production in domestic and foreign production areas remains unchanged, and the spot inventory level of natural rubber is high.

The fundamentals of natural rubber are under pressure, which has little support for rubber prices; downstream demand performance is weak, the mentality of replenishment is cautious, and the actual order follow-up is light. In the future, as the macro sentiment gradually cools down, it is expected that rubber prices may return to the fundamental weakness and oscillate back.

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