Carbon Black Daily: Costs Drop, Demand Retreats — Can No Longer Hold(Sep 23)
Carbon Black Daily: Costs Drop, Demand Retreats — Can No Longer Hold
01 Carbon Black Index
According to Tuduoduo data calculations, the carbon black price index on September 23 was 10,911.25, down 264 from the previous trading day.
02 Carbon Black Market Price
03 Carbon Black Market Analysis
1. Upstream Raw Materials: Coal tar prices in Shandong region are at 6,400 yuan/ton; Shanxi region at 6,250 yuan/ton; Hebei region at 6,360 yuan/ton. Recently, bearish factors in the market have increased, and the coal tar market has entered a downward trend. However, to promote product sales, downstream factories have a strong intention to hold prices firm, limiting the market decline for the time being.
2. Carbon Black Supply: Operating rates at sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market have declined. Coal tar raw material prices remain at high levels, and carbon black enterprises have low raw material inventories. However, due to shipping difficulties affecting their procurement sentiment for raw materials, some large plants have chosen to reduce production lines and lower operating loads. A plant in Hebei is undergoing maintenance. Overall, the carbon black market operating rate has declined.
3. Downstream Demand: According to reports, all-steel tire enterprises that previously underwent maintenance remain in shutdown status, with resumption dates postponed. Additionally, some enterprises are in the final stages before maintenance, further dragging down tire operating rates. A few enterprises maintain high operating rates to ensure routine product supply. Each enterprise adjusts production schedules flexibly based on its own conditions, but raw material cost pressure persists. As maintenance dates approach for some enterprises, the supply side is expected to continue weakening.
04 Market Outlook
Currently, support in the carbon black market is weakening, and downward pressure on the market is gradually emerging. On the cost side, pre-holiday coal tar new order prices are showing a declining trend, bearish factors on the cost side are strengthening, and the previous foundation for price support is loosening. On the demand side, some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans, procurement pace is slowing, and purchasing enthusiasm is low, further weakening demand support. Under the dual bearish impact of cost and demand, pressure on carbon black new order shipments is increasing, and the market has already begun to show a downward trend in new orders. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its decline.
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