August Rubber Price & Sept Forecast
1. Rubber Market Price Analysis
Dry Rubber
Natural rubber prices fluctuated upward in August. Weather impacts in producing areas weakened at the beginning of the month, and increased supply put pressure on raw material prices. However, continued geopolitical conflicts overseas led to sluggish rubber tapping, limiting the decline in raw material prices.
Coupled with a significant drop in rubber prices at the end of July, downstream tire companies actively restocked, driving down overall Qingdao port inventories and boosting rubber prices. Heavy rainfall in producing areas continued in the middle of the month, limiting the release of new rubber, pushing up raw material procurement prices and supporting rubber prices from the cost side.
Overseas cargo arrivals remained low, leading to a rebound in delivery volumes by end-user tire companies and a significant destocking of natural rubber spot inventories, boosting market confidence and strengthening the upward trend in rubber prices. At the end of the month, continued rainy weather disrupted producing areas both domestically and internationally, resulting in lower-than-expected upstream supply and maintaining high raw material prices.
Qingdao spot inventory destocking slowed, and coupled with the continued release of replacement planting in Yunnan, China's social inventory accumulated, further fueling bearish market sentiment. Rubber prices faced multiple headwinds, slowing their upward trend.
Natural Rubber Latex
The average monthly price of natural rubber latex in China's market rose month-over-month in August. Weather and other factors disrupted major production areas both domestically and internationally, increasing support from raw materials and costs. Meanwhile, spot supply pressure in sales areas was minimal, particularly with tight supply of bulk resources from Thailand.
Traders were increasingly controlling supply and maintaining prices. This, coupled with a strong upward trend in futures prices, further boosted rubber prices. However, expectations of increased port arrivals in the second half of the month are rising, while demand from downstream product manufacturers remains stagnant, leading to resistance to stockpiling high-priced raw materials and suppressing upward market momentum.
Market Forecast:
1. Rainfall in major global production regions is expected to ease in September, leading to an improvement in raw material output.
2. Operating rates at sample tire manufacturers are expected to improve in September.
3. Social natural rubber inventories are expected to continue to decline in September.
2. Comparison of Rubber Market Prices This Month
International Market
Domestic Market
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