Rubber Price Dips and Supply Shifts

Index

On July 28, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1820 USD/ton, down 50 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market:

In terms of spot market supply: Abroad: Some areas of Thailand are still disturbed by heavy rainfall, which affects rubber tapping. The purchase price of raw materials continues to rise, and the pressure on raw materials in factories is not great; the price of raw materials in Vietnam production areas has risen, and the price of cup rubber remains relatively strong. Due to the influence of Typhoon Wipha, there is more precipitation in the north and central parts of the country, and the rubber tapping operations in the main production areas in the south have not been significantly affected, and the seasonal supply increase trend has not changed.

Domestically: Due to the influence of rainfall, the production area of Yunnan is affected by rainfall, the amount of rubber is slow, and the tight supply of raw materials supports the purchase price to remain strong; the production area of Hainan is affected by Typhoon "Wipha", and the heavy rainfall weather disturbs the release of raw material production. The mood of processing plants to increase the price to rush to collect raw materials has heated up, which has led to an increase in the purchase price of raw materials, and the cost side has strengthened.

Demand: It is understood that some all-steel tire companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month. The equipment is currently in the final stage, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization of all-steel tire companies. Near the end of the month, foreign trade shipments are relatively concentrated, and domestic sales shipments are relatively slow. The overall shipment performance of enterprises has not improved significantly.

List of futures and spot prices

Market forecast

Today's main rubber contract futures market continues the high-level correction trend of Friday night trading. The center of gravity of spot quotations follows the wide range of the market. Holders are cautious in quoting. The price of raw materials in the production area is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the cost support is strong. Downstream demand performance is general, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, and the overall transaction is light. However, the market is bullish in the short term, and it is expected that rubber prices will remain weak.

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