Natural Rubber Daily: Costs Cooling, Bullish Sentiment Persists（Oct 16）

Natural Rubber Daily: Costs Cooling, Bullish Sentiment Persists

On October 16, the Qingdao market STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2,580/ton, up $20/ton from the previous trading day.

Overseas: Weather in northeastern Thailand has slightly improved, and mills' enthusiasm for high-price purchases has cooled; heavy rainfall is concentrated in southern and eastern Thailand, affecting the pace of latex output.

Currently in the seasonal peak production cycle, but persistent evening rainfall disrupts tapping operations. The Xining production area is significantly affected by rain, and overall actual output falls short of peak production expectations.

Domestic: The Yunnan production area had no precipitation during the week, and raw materials are in the ramp-up phase. With improved whole-milk latex profitability and increased orders, raw material demand remains acceptable.

The Hainan production area has favorable weather, with tapping operations underway and new rubber supply showing seasonal volume growth. Supported by factors such as orders and profitability, local processing plants maintain a stance of purchasing raw materials at premium prices.

Demand:

According to reports, with raw material prices remaining high and manufacturers raising quotes, channels mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude, primarily digesting inventory and maintaining only rigid sporadic purchases. All-steel tire production is weak, with some specifications experiencing shortages, while semi-steel tire production is slowly recovering, and replacement market demand remains generally stable.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

From the cost side, the intensity of upstream processing plants' premium purchases of raw materials has weakened, and there are expectations for raw material price corrections. The cost-driven upward momentum for rubber prices has consequently diminished. However, from the demand side, as downstream enterprises' production rates gradually recover, their willingness to proactively stock up at low prices is strengthening, which is expected to break the sustained inventory accumulation trend in the post-holiday market, thereby providing some support for rubber prices at the bottom. With intertwined bullish and bearish factors, the natural rubber market still maintains bullish sentiment in the short term, and subsequent trends are worth watching.

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