Natural Rubber Daily: Downstream Stocking, Rubber Prices Bottoming in Range(Oct 19)

Natural Rubber Daily: Downstream Stocking, Rubber Prices Bottoming in Range

On October 19, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was $2,575/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.

Overseas: Weather in northeastern Thailand improved slightly, and mills' high-price purchasing sentiment cooled. Heavy rainfall concentrated in southern and eastern Thailand, disrupting the pace of latex output.

The market is in the seasonal peak production cycle, but persistent evening rainfall disrupts tapping operations. The Xining production area is significantly affected by rain, and overall actual output falls short of peak production expectations.

Domestic: No rainfall in Yunnan production areas during the week, with raw materials in the volume-increase phase. Supported by improved full-latex profit margins and increased orders, raw material demand remains acceptable.

Weather conditions in Hainan production areas are favorable, with tapping operations gradually resuming. New rubber supply is showing seasonal volume growth. Supported by orders and profit factors, local processing plants maintain a premium purchasing stance for raw materials.

Demand side:

According to reports, some enterprises face limited increases in operating rates. High raw material prices constrain tire enterprises' production intensity. A few large enterprises maintain acceptable operating conditions with average finished product inventories, ensuring order delivery and regular product supply.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

On the supply side, the market expects that the Southeast Asian peak production season will see constrained volume increases, and upstream raw material prices may remain at high levels, with cost-side support still in place. On the demand side, as downstream operating rates gradually recover and enterprises proactively stock up at low prices, this may break the post-holiday market expectation of continued inventory accumulation, providing support for the rubber price floor.

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