Natural Rubber Market Update July 29

Index

On July 29th, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber market in Qingdao was $1,810/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market Supply: Internationally: Heavy rainfall continued to disrupt rubber tapping in parts of Thailand, impacting raw material procurement prices. Raw material prices continued to rise, but factories faced little pressure on raw materials. Raw material prices in Vietnam's producing areas rose, while cup rubber prices remained relatively strong. Typhoon Wipha brought heavy rainfall to northern and central Vietnam, but tapping operations in the main southern producing areas were not significantly affected, and the seasonal supply increase trend remained unchanged.

Domestically: Rainfall affected Yunnan's producing areas, slowing rubber production. Tight raw material supply supported strong purchase prices. Rainfall improved in Hainan's producing areas, allowing tapping operations to resume. Raw material supply on the island showed a month-on-month increase. To meet their own production needs, some processing plants continued to increase prices to rush to purchase raw materials. However, due to order and profit constraints, some processing plants were cautious about purchasing at high prices.

On the demand side: It is understood that some companies scheduled for month-end maintenance have already entered their maintenance period, while others are in the final stages of completion. This will have a certain drag on overall operating rates. It is expected that overall production schedules will remain relatively low at the end of the month, and overall inventory reduction will remain slow.

Futures and Spot Price List

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw weak fluctuations, with the spot price center of gravity following the market trend and moving slightly downward. The market's center of gravity is unstable. Due to weather disruptions, raw material prices remain high, and rubber prices still have support at the bottom. However, downstream demand is unlikely to improve.

Total spot inventories at Qingdao Port are showing a slight accumulation. Coupled with cooling macroeconomic sentiment, rubber prices have risen and then fallen, and market trading is cautious. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fall and then consolidate.

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