Natural Rubber Daily Report: Peak Production Arrives - Can Natural Rubber Hold Up?(Nov 9)

Natural Rubber Daily Report: Peak Production Arrives - Can Natural Rubber Hold Up?

On November 9, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was $2,425/ton, up $10/ton from the previous trading day.

Futures Market

Spot Market

Supply:

Overseas: Weather conditions in Thai producing areas improved, with increasing supply pressuring prices. Second-tier dealers actively sold goods, processing plants purchased at lower prices, and raw material prices continued to decline.

Vietnam is in the seasonal peak production stage, with tapping operations proceeding normally and latex output improving month-on-month.

Domestic: Yunnan producing areas are mainly experiencing rainfall, affecting the volume of raw materials.

Hainan producing areas continue to see rain-related disruptions, with tapping operations proceeding poorly. The pace of raw material production release on the island has slowed phase by phase. Supported by factors such as orders and profitability, local processing plants have maintained a stance of purchasing raw materials at premium prices.

Demand:

It is understood that industry profit levels are poor, with some enterprises operating at only 50-70% capacity. A few medium-to-large enterprises have relatively acceptable operating rates, mostly producing on demand, though some face incomplete product specifications and models.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

Southeast Asian producing areas are gradually entering the peak production cycle, with new rubber output being released successively. Seasonal supply increase expectations are pressuring the market upside. Downstream demand lacks sustained momentum, with procurement mainly on a need-to-buy basis. Spot destocking space is limited, and medium-to-long-term inventory accumulation risk remains. The overall market sentiment is currently cautious, with traders and downstream enterprises tending toward conservative operations. Lacking clear positive drivers, rubber prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

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