Daily Macro Economy News on July 21

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The General Administration of Market Supervision continues to increase trade secret protection efforts

2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Five Other Departments Organize Collection of Virtual Reality Pioneer Application Cases

3. China Mobile: June net customer additions amounted to 2.278 million households

4. NDRC: Establishing and improving working mechanism to promote the development of private economy and private enterprises

International News

1. Former Bank of England governor: too many UK rate hikes could trigger recession

2. Zaporozhye: Ukraine is planning to occupy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant at the end of July

3. ABN AMRO: EUR/USD could test 1.1100 in coming days

4. RBC: ECB expected to pause rate hikes after deposit rate reaches 4%

More detials:

Domestic News

1. The General Administration of Market Supervision continues to increase trade secret protection efforts

The General Administration of Market Supervision held a press conference on the 20th to introduce the first "enterprise trade secret protection ability to enhance the service month" activities. The General Administration of Market Supervision, Price Supervision and Competition Bureau, focusing on the urgent need for trade secret protection of knowledge-intensive enterprises, technology-intensive enterprises, innovative enterprises, long-established enterprises, the establishment of contact points for the protection of trade secrets, improve the service network, and strengthen the service guarantee. During the activity period, the local market field research visited 30,477 enterprises, issued more than 100,000 questionnaires, collected 7,388 opinions and suggestions of enterprises on strengthening the protection of trade secrets, and formed a report on the protection of trade secrets and 507 information, which laid the foundation for an in-depth analysis of the situation and challenges of the protection of trade secrets in China, and identified the landing point and force point of promoting the innovation and development of enterprises, and optimizing the business environment in the region. Laid the foundation. (CCTV News)

2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Five Other Departments Organize Collection of Virtual Reality Pioneer Application Cases

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the State Administration of Radio and Television, and the State General Administration of Sports have recently jointly issued a notice to organize and carry out the collection of virtual reality pioneer application cases. For the key application scenarios of virtual reality (including augmented reality and mixed reality), a batch of pioneering application cases with advanced technology, remarkable results, and replicable and popularized will be collected and selected in the ten major fields of industrial production, culture and tourism, converged media, education and training, sports and health, trade and commerce creativity, performing arts and entertainment, safety and emergency response, handicap assistance, and smart city.

3. China Mobile: June net customer additions amounted to 2.278 million households

China Mobile (00941.HK) HKEx announced that the total number of customers in June was 985 million, the number of net new customers in the month was 2.278 million, and the number of 5G package customers was 722 million.

4. NDRC: Establishing and improving working mechanism to promote the development of private economy and private enterprises

Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that the mechanism will be improved and responsibilities will be solidified. Establish and improve the working mechanism to promote the development of the private economy and private enterprises, further clarify and solidify departmental responsibilities, strengthen synergies and cooperation, and enhance central and local linkage. Local governments should also, in accordance with the spirit and requirements of the central documents, fully integrate local realities, formulate and refine specific implementation programs, set work objectives and time schedules, and promote the implementation of various measures. Statistical monitoring will be strengthened, dynamic tracking of the implementation of the document will be carried out on an ongoing basis, a third-party evaluation mechanism for the effect of policy implementation will be improved, and new situations will be constantly studied, new experiences summarized and new problems solved. Timely follow-up measures will be proposed to improve the policy, and efforts will be made to resolve the outstanding difficulties and problems facing the development of the private economy at this stage.

International News

1. Former Bank of England governor: too many UK rate hikes could trigger recession

Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King has warned that excessive tightening of interest rates by the Bank of England to eliminate inflation risks triggering a recession. The central bank ignored signals from money supply data that predicted a spike in prices before the BoE acted. king said in an interview: "The risk is that they ignored money when inflation was rising, and now they're ignoring money when inflation is about to fall. So it's been wrong in both directions for three or four years. If they continue to tighten monetary policy over the next six months or so, it's likely to trigger both a recession and a sharp decline in inflation." After misjudging the initial spike, the Bank of England may now be overdoing it, King said.

2. Zaporozhye: Ukraine is planning to occupy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant at the end of July

Vladimir Rogov, the leader of the "We are with Russia" movement in Zaporizhia region, said that the Ukrainian army is planning to carry out a forced crossing of the Dnipro River and occupation of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant at the end of July. According to the information received from various sources, the Ukrainian army is planning to carry out a military provocation at the end of July, forcibly crossing the Dnipro River in order to take over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant," Rogov said. They have determined that this time of year is the most favorable for crossing the river through the Kakhovka reservoir, which has become shallow." (Sputnik)

3. ABN AMRO: EUR/USD could test 1.1100 in coming days

EUR/USD fell back to 1.1200 and the pair has room for further correction, according to economists at ABN AMRO. According to ABN AMRO's short-term financial fair value model, EUR/USD remains overvalued by around 2.5%. EUR/USD is more likely to fall from this high level than to rise. EUR/USD could test 1.1100 in the coming days.

4. RBC: ECB expected to pause rate hikes after deposit rate reaches 4%

Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada said they expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%, followed by a final hike of 25 basis points in September, taking the rate to an eventual 4.0%. Peter Schaffrik and Gordon Scott, global macro strategists at Change Bank, said that while we expect the ECB to pause on rate hikes thereafter, given the recent market rally, we think the risks on that front are skewed to the upside.In December, the ECB will publish new quarterly forecasts, including for 2026. They said, "If inflation and the labor market have not cooled by then, we see the possibility of a further 25 bps rate hike in December or in the first quarter of next year."

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