November 12th Macroeconomic Index: China's SME Development Index Surges, Green Loans Grow Rapidly
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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. In October, China's SME development index increased by 0.3 points, and the sub-index rose across the whole market.
2. Monetary regulation and control will improve accuracy, strengthen cooperation with fiscal policies, and have a high probability of RRR cut.
3. In the first three quarters, China's green loans maintained rapid growth.
4. The National Energy Administration further regulates the trading behavior of the electricity market
5. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Vehicle exports in October were 542,000 units, reflecting an 11.1% increase year-on-year.
International News
1. Many banks on Wall Street have successively lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025
2. The President of Iran and the Saudi Crown Prince had a phone call to discuss the development of bilateral cooperation
3. The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting Week launched in the capital of Peruvian
4. The Lebanese Government has decided to strengthen its armed deployment in southern Lebanon
5. Shigeru Ishiba won the election for the Prime Minister of Japan
Domestic News
1. In October, China's SME development index increased by 0.3 points, and the sub-index rose across the whole market.
The China Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises released today that the development index of China's small and medium-sized enterprises in October was 89, up 0.3 points from September, the largest increase this year and the largest monthly increase since March last year. In terms of sub-indexes, the macroeconomic sentiment index, cost index, labor index, input index, and efficiency index changed from decline to increase, the comprehensive operation index and capital index changed from flat to rising, and the market index continued to rise. It shows that the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises have improved, and the prosperity level has rebounded significantly. The overall increase in the sub-index in October was the second time since March this year.
2. Monetary regulation and control will improve accuracy, strengthen cooperation with fiscal policies, and have a high probability of RRR cut.
Recently, a package of incremental policies has been implemented, which has strongly boosted market confidence. Industry experts said that the current economic operation is still facing difficulties and challenges, and external uncertainty is also rising. In the future, the monetary policy will maintain a steady and loose tone, increase the intensity and precision of regulation and control, strengthen coordination and cooperation with fiscal policy, and create a sound monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth. Industry participates believe that combined with the central bank's continued statement in the monetary policy implementation report to "promote the steady decline of corporate financing and household credit costs", the probability of subsequent RRR and interest rate cuts is relatively high, and the deposit rate will also fall.
3. In the first three quarters, China's green loans maintained rapid growth.
According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China, as of the end of the third quarter, the balance of green loans in local and foreign currencies in China was 35.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, 17.5 percentage points higher than that of various loans, and an increase of 5.67 trillion yuan in the first three quarters. Among them, loans to projects with direct and indirect carbon emission reduction benefits were 11.86 trillion yuan and 12.04 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 66.8% of green loans.
4. The National Energy Administration further regulates the trading behavior of the electricity market
The General Department of the National Energy Administration issued a notice on matters related to further regulating the trading behavior of the electricity market. The notice proposes that all business entities should further standardize the market quotation behavior, comprehensively consider the fixed cost of the unit, fuel cost, energy supply and demand and other objective conditions of the compliance quotation, and promote the transaction price to truly and accurately reflect the value of electricity commodities. The relevant business entities on the power generation side and the electricity sales side shall not uniformly agree on transaction prices, electricity and other declaration elements to achieve specific transactions through online or offline means.
5. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Vehicle exports in October were 542,000 units, reflecting an 11.1% increase year-on-year.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Vehicle exports in October totaled 542,000 units, reflecting a 0.5% m/m increase and an 11.1% y/y increase. Passenger car exports totaled 465,000 units, reflecting a 1.8% m/m increase and a 10.7% y/y increase. Commercial vehicle exports totaled 76,000 units, reflecting a 6.6% m/m decrease and a 13.6% y/y increase. Vehicle exports from January to October totaled 4.855 million units, reflecting a 23.8% y/y increase. Passenger car exports totaled 4.1 million units, reflecting a 24% y/y increase. Commercial vehicle exports totaled 755,000 units, reflecting a 22.5% y/y increase.
International News
1. Many banks on Wall Street have successively lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025
Based on the back of President Trump and the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Wall Street economists and strategists lowered their expectations for a US interest rate cut next year. The banks that have recently adjusted their forecasts include Barclays and TD Bank. Teams from both companies mentioned that the Trump administration could impose stricter restrictions on immigration and raise import tariffs. They said the policies could spur inflation and change the Fed's interest rate path. Goldman Sachs has previously adjusted its forecasts, and its new forecast is that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting until March, with the final action falling in June and September.
2. The President of Iran and the Saudi Crown Prince had a phone call to discuss the development of bilateral cooperation.
On November 10, local time, Iranian President Pezeshiziyan had a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed. Pezekhitsian said that the first Vice President of Iran will go to Saudi Arabia to represent him at the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, believing that the meeting will achieve tangible and effective results in stopping Israel's crimes and stopping the conflict and bloodshed in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. In addition, he expressed the hope that the two countries can deepen and expand the development of bilateral relations in various fields. Mohammed said that Saudi-Iranian relations are at a historical turning point, and he hopes to raise the cooperation between the two countries in various fields to the highest level, and he will continue consultations with the first Vice President of Iran in Riyadh on this issue.
3. The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting Week launched in the capital of Peruvian
On November 10, local time, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting Week kicked off in Lima, the capital of Peru. Heads of government and senior officials, representatives of private enterprises, experts, scholars and media professionals from 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific region attended the meeting. The 31st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting will be held on November 16.
4. The Lebanese Government has decided to strengthen its armed deployment in southern Lebanon
On November 10, local time, Lebanese Foreign Minister Habib said that the Lebanese government decided to strengthen the deployment of the country's armed forces in southern Lebanon. Habib said the Lebanese government had decided to recruit and train 1,500 soldiers in preparation for the deployment of an additional 5,000 troops to southern Lebanon.
5. Shigeru Ishiba won the election for the Prime Minister of Japan
On the afternoon of November 11, in the election of the Prime Minister of the House of Councillors of the Japanese Diet, Shigeru Ishiba, President of the Liberal Democratic Party, won. The deciding round of voting for the Prime Minister's nomination in the House of Representatives is about to begin. In the first round of voting for the election of the Prime Minister of the House of Representatives held earlier, no one received more than half of the valid votes and the vote went to the decisive round. Shigeru Ishiba received 221 votes out of a total of 465 valid votes, and Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, received 151 votes. The decisive round will be played between these two people.
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