Polyethylene Weekly Report: Spot market fluctuated during the week, and linear prices stood out(December 26, 2024)
Chapter 1: Review of polyethylene market this week
1. Analysis of domestic polyethylene market trends
This week, the overall trend of domestic polyethylene market varieties diverged. Compared with the same period last week, the spot comprehensive price rose and fell. As of Thursday this week, the domestic linear price was 8830-9300 yuan/ton; the high pressure price was 10140-10490 yuan/ton; the low pressure film price was 7580-8400 yuan/ton; the low pressure wire drawing price was 8070-9000 yuan/ton.
The factors affecting the market trend this week are: 1. On the cost side, international oil prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising during the week. In the early part of the week, international oil prices fell due to concerns about crude oil demand and the US commitment to lift energy restrictions. In the late part of the week, oil prices rebounded due to factors such as the unexpected decline in US API crude oil inventories, and the cost support of the PE market was strengthened. 2. On the supply side, affected by the market pressure from the news of the increase in supply in the market, the center of gravity of the PE market price has moved down, but the spot supply of LLDPE in the market is still tight, and the market sentiment is good. Traders mostly push up their quotations, while the market atmosphere of other sources is cautious and wait-and-see. Some traders make small concessions, and the market at the end of the month mostly pre-sells the supply of the beginning of the next month, and the market pre-sale sentiment is strong. 3. On the demand side, the support of downstream orders continues to weaken, the market transaction atmosphere slows down, and the terminal purchases are mainly based on rigid needs. Enterprises follow up limitedly and produce according to orders.
2. Analysis of the trend of polyethylene in the US dollar market
Chapter 2 Polyethylene trend forecast
In terms of raw materials, Sevens Report Research said that geopolitical concerns are the main reason why WTI oil prices can be maintained at US$65 per barrel in the second half of this year, and the light trading during holidays may cause crude oil prices to rebound. On the supply side, the number of planned maintenance units of PE production enterprises is relatively small near the end of the year, and some new PE units have entered the production stage one after another. The supply of goods in the market is expected to increase, but the tight supply of LLDPE still exists. In the short term, it may continue to support the upward shift of its market price center of gravity, but the market is cautious about chasing high prices, and the upward space is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of various downstream industries of PE is expected to continue to decline slightly next week, and some packaging industries will maintain low-load operation. However, downstream factories may have a small amount of replenishment after the New Year's Day, and the overall support for the PE market on the demand side may remain rigid. On the whole, it is expected that the polyethylene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
