4月22日消息，受到地缘政治和区域贸易等多重因素影响，预计未来几个月内欧洲炭黑供应压力将持续增加。
Paul Ita, head of Notch Consulting Group, pointed out at a recent industry conference that global carbon black demand is expected to be 13.7 million tons in 2023, with the tire industry accounting for 73% of the demand. However, he also mentioned that although the tire industry's carbon black demand is expected to show an average annual growth rate of approximately 3.8% over the next five years, 2023 is regarded as a "challenging year" for the carbon black industry, and global sales overall remain stable.
据炭黑产业网了解，这一稳定销量的背后，反映了欧洲和北美轻型车和商用车替换市场的长期去库存现象。虽然原始设备需求有所改善，但其持续时间比预期更长，仅部分抵消了前述的负面趋势。此外，全球炭黑工厂的利用率已降至20年来的最低水平，仅为69%，这在一定程度上是由于2022至2023年度新增了160万吨的炭黑产能。
Ita further pointed out that geopolitical factors are having a profound impact on global supply and demand in the carbon black industry. Starting from July 2024, the EU will ban the import of carbon black from Russia, which will result in a gap of about 30% in Europe's carbon black supply, because Russian carbon black previously accounted for this proportion of European demand. Currently, Russia has begun to divert its carbon black exports to Turkey, China and Southeast Asian markets.
与此同时，印度正逐渐成为西部地区的重要炭黑出口国。Ita预测，基于其产能扩张计划，印度有望在未来几年内成为全球炭黑生产的重要力量。尽管市场变化和地缘政治动荡的整体影响迄今为止因需求疲软而被减弱，但供应压力正在悄然积聚。
In North America and Europe, carbon black prices have experienced premiums due to supply chain uncertainty and increased reliance on local supplies. Ita warned that the pressure will only intensify as markets are likely to tighten in the coming months. He cited Notch's proprietary data and pointed out that although the utilization rate of carbon black plants in the EU has recovered from 77% in 2022 to 87% last year, this is mainly due to reduced Russian imports and the efforts of Chinese suppliers to produce.
展望未来，由于需求回升和进口下降，预计欧盟工厂的利用率将保持在80%左右。Ita认为，俄罗斯的产量将只被来自印度和中国等国家的进口部分取代，这意味着欧洲的炭黑净进口地位在未来可能会保持在较低水平。
