Recently, the market for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol in China has fluctuated closely following the international crude oil market. Its own supply and demand side has limited market drive, insufficient market confidence, and lack of sustainable market drive. Therefore, the market is still a cost-driven market. Since mid-October, concerns about slowing demand and some signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East have continued to put pressure on commodities. The European and American crude oil futures markets have been bearish, market prices have fluctuated and dropped, and pressure has been put on the cost side. Polyester raw materials PTA and The ethylene glycol market continues to weaken. As of the 21st, the PTA spot market fell to 4865 yuan/ton, down 8.90% from the high at the beginning of the month; the ethylene glycol East China market fell to 4630 yuan/ton, down 5.03% from the high at the beginning of the month.
Optimistic about China's economic revitalization and continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led traders to cover short positions and European and American crude oil futures rebounded. Boosted by the cost side, market confidence improved, and the PTA market for polyester raw material began to rise slightly. However, the ethylene glycol market was subject to the pressure of rising inventories, and the market remained volatile.
Judging from the supply and demand side of PTA itself, recent changes in PTA companies 'equipment have been limited. PTA companies have maintained a level of around 80%. The market spot supply is sufficient, and PTA is in a warehouse accumulation cycle. A 2.5 million-ton PTA unit in Hengli Huizhou was overhauled from October 13 to October 24. The 1.2 million-ton PTA unit in Zhongtai, Xinjiang, was stopped on October 6, and the restart time is to be determined. From the demand side, the recent construction of downstream polyester companies has remained at around 90%. With the support of the peak season of the textile and weaving industry, the weaving operating rate has steadily increased, and the local walking volume of grey cloth has increased. The demand side supports the market.
Judging from the supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself, with the recent restoration of several sets of maintenance equipment, the overall industry has maintained a level of more than 60%. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity, the market supply will gradually increase. Ethylene glycol port stocks in the main port of East China began to accumulate, which put a certain pressure on the market. On the demand side: The downstream polyester load is high, coupled with the support of the terminal textile market during the peak season, rigid demand supports the market.
Recently, the starting load of polyester enterprises in China has remained at a high level of around 90%. Polyester costs have gradually declined. The pressure on production costs of enterprises has eased, and the production profits of polyester enterprises are still acceptable. Therefore, the enthusiasm of polyester enterprises to start construction has increased, and the starting load of polyester enterprises will remain high in the short term. Terminal textile demand is still in the peak demand season. As of now, the terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has remained high, with the loading load rising to around 93%, and the weaving load rising to around 83%. As the weather turns colder, the market demand for thermal insulation fabrics in winter has picked up, but although raw material prices have dropped, they are still high. The downstream wait-and-see attitude is cautious. There is no obvious improvement expectation on the demand side. Procurement demand is average, and over-inventory is mainly cleared. Although the "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" shopping festivals have warmed up the atmosphere, new orders are limited, and most terminals are mainly just-needed orders, making it difficult for the market to expect significant improvement. It is worth noting that the Lunar New Year is early, so orders may be placed in advance after some years.
On the whole, from the perspective of polyester's own supply and demand side, its own supply still has incremental expectations, while the improvement on the demand side is limited, and the overall fundamentals are not driven by market supply and demand. Recently, the focus of the international crude oil market is still focused on demand and geographical factors. The situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, while the overall demand side is still weak, and international crude oil maintains an empty and good game posture. The polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol markets will follow the shock of crude oil and still need to follow up cautiously.
