Since mid-September, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market gradually stopped falling, the market continues to be in the bottom shock pattern. PTA spot market prices remain in the range of 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The spot market of ethylene glycol in East China closed in the range of 4400-4460 yuan / ton. Boosted by the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts by the end of the year, crude oil futures in Europe and the United States rose more than 4 per cent last week. China's commodity atmosphere has improved, forming a certain support to the market, and the spot market of polyester raw materials has been maintained at a low level. This week, however, the economic downturn in the euro zone raised fears of a slowdown in global demand, and the Iranian president hinted that he was willing to ease the situation in the Middle East, and international oil prices fell back. Lack of cost promotion, the polyester raw material market is still difficult to get rid of the weak shock trend.
From the polyester raw material PTA's own fundamentals, the recent PTA enterprise equipment changes frequently, PTA enterprise start-up dropped to less than 80% of the level, the spot supply in the market shrank, PTA temporarily ended the accumulation pattern. Under the influence of the typhoon, the 1.2 million ton installation in Sanfang Lane gradually recovered after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Jiangyin Hanbang 2.2 million ton PTA device resumed after temporary parking during the holiday. Sichuan can throw 1 million tons of PTA plant to stop on September 19th. The 3.75 million-ton PTA plant dropped to around 50% on September 20 and is expected to last around a week. A set of 1.5 million-ton PTA plant in Jiaxing Petrochemical Company will be overhauled from September 10th and is expected to last for about 2 weeks. Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million ton PTA plant was overhauled as planned and restarted to be determined. From the demand side, the recent start-up of downstream polyester enterprises has rebounded to around 88%. Although the terminal textile and weaving industry begins to enter the peak season, the recovery of demand is limited, and the demand side supports the market in general.
From the perspective of the fundamentals of polyester raw material ethylene glycol, recently, with the restoration of several sets of maintenance equipment, the overall start-up of the industry has gradually rebounded to more than 60%, coupled with the new capacity plan to start up, the market supply will gradually increase. A 400000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is currently heating up and restarting and is expected to be released this week after it was stopped for overhaul in mid-August. Yangshan Shouyang 220000-ton ethylene glycol plant is scheduled to restart at the end of the month, and the device was shut down in mid-August for some reason. The arrival of ethylene glycol imports is expected to increase to a certain extent, while the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China is on the low side, which supports the market; in terms of demand: the downstream polyester load picks up slightly, and the terminal textile market begins to enter the peak season, but the demand recovery is limited and the demand is insufficient to support the market.
As the terminal textile and weaving industry enters the peak season of traditional demand, the comprehensive start-up of East China weaving enterprises has recently risen to around 76%, and that of texturing enterprises has risen to around 89%. Autumn and winter orders are gradually launched, the stock of middlemen is expected to increase before the festival, factory shipments are improving, and the grey fabric inventory of weaving enterprises is narrowly reduced. At present, the mood of terminal manufacturers to prepare goods is cautious, mainly according to single-volume rigid demand, 90% of the gold is not enough, and the number of weaving factory orders has only slightly increased. With the coming National Day holiday, manufacturers may be willing to have a holiday, and there are certain replenishment nodes in the field, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and some weaving manufacturers store false expectations during the National Day holiday, and the market may be more cautious about demand expectations.
On the 24th, the central bank announced a cut in reserve requirements, interest rates and stock mortgage interest rates, which will further consolidate growth. The stronger monetary policy issued by the people's Bank of China will help support the economy and promote consumption and investment. China's policy side will give a positive boost to the market. However, the fundamentals of the polyester market have not been substantially improved, and the short-term market may maintain the trend of bottom shock, and continue to pay attention to the promotion of international crude oil and market supply and demand to the market.
