Polyester raw material PTA market since July began to shock downward, PTA fell below 5500 yuan / ton of long-term support, market prices hit a low in nearly a year. The geopolitical risk premium in European and American oil futures markets eased as the United States pushed for a cease-fire to end the war in Gaza, and international oil prices continued to plunge to nearly two-week lows as the summer approached, as the US driving season ended and demand for aviation fuel slowed. Fears of weak demand weighed on the market. Upstream PX futures prices hit a new low since listing, cost support collapsed.
From the perspective of PTA's own fundamentals, recently, PTA enterprise devices have changed frequently, maintenance and restart devices have increased, PTA enterprises have started work at a high level of more than 82%, the market supply is sufficient, and PTA continues to be in a storage cycle. Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) carried out annual overhaul of the 4.7 million-ton PTA plant from August to September as planned, of which the 2.5 million-ton production line began to stop and repair on August 17, and the restart time has yet to be determined. The 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in Jiangyin Hanbang was stopped unplanned on August 12th and resumed on August 16th. The weak outlook for crude oil demand and the slowdown in global economic growth, global assets started recession trading, PTA this round of decline is the result of weak polyester raw material fundamentals magnified by macro sentiment.
The start-up of the domestic polyester industry has been maintained at a low level of less than 85% since mid-July. since the polyester filament began to limit production and guarantee prices in June, the polyester load began to decline rapidly, and staple fiber factories continued to reduce production, which was finally transmitted to polyester bottle chips, which began to reduce production or stop on a large scale under the pressure of long-term losses, which also led to an accelerated decline in polyester load. Since the middle of August, due to the continuous decline of polyester raw materials, part of the polyester production reduction unit has resumed, although the polyester load has rebounded slightly, but the space is limited.
With the continued impact of the high temperature weather, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile is deep, the off-peak electricity is used in many weaving production bases, most manufacturers stop machines and take holidays, the weaving operation rate has dropped significantly since the end of June, and the weaving enterprises started from a high of 79% to 59% by mid-August. Since last week, the weaving industry has rebounded narrowly after two consecutive months of shocks. Local market demand warmed up slightly, foreign trade orders began to improve in autumn and winter, the pressure of grey cloth inventory in the factory was narrowly alleviated, and early high-temperature parking and holiday enterprises resumed production one after another. Order delivery is gradually heating up, downstream manufacturers are more willing to prepare raw materials, and the inventory of raw materials in weaving enterprises has slightly increased. In terms of orders, the inquiry atmosphere in foreign trade has improved, domestic trade is still dominated by rigid demand, orders have improved significantly in autumn and winter, and the number of weaving factory orders has increased slightly. The current phased increase in demand has played a certain role in boosting market confidence, and the market is still full of expectations for the upcoming peak demand season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten".
Generally speaking, the polyester raw material PTA market due to the relatively weak cost end, coupled with the PTA itself is still in the accumulation cycle, the formation of the market continues to suppress, but with the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season approaching, terminal demand is expected to improve, the market will continue to fall back in the later period will be limited. Polyester market offer will be mainly adjusted with the cost, terminal rigid demand follow-up, market production and sales light. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the promotion of international crude oil and market supply and demand to the market.
