Global assets suffered a "Black Monday" on Monday. Signs of a recession in the United States led to a fall in global stock markets. The Japanese stock market led the decline on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 average closing down 4451 points, a record point drop. Other major Asian stock indexes have been "implicated", South Korea's two major stock indexes plummeted to trigger circuit breakers, India, Singapore, Indonesia and other stock indexes have also fallen. Unease has also spread to Europe and the United States. Us crude oil futures fell to a six-month low and Brent crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since the start of the year.
Macro negative suppression, the domestic commodity market atmosphere weakening, affected by this, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market have declined, East China PTA spot prices fell 110yuan / ton, at 5685 yuan / ton, down 1.90%. The spot market of ethylene glycol in East China fell to 4650 yuan / ton, down 0.53%. The decline in the cost side is a drag, and the polyester market is weakening. Falling prices depress the market to buy gas, and the production and sales of polyester market tend to be light. The average production and marketing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments is only around 2-30%. Polyester staple fiber factory production and marketing in the vicinity of 4-60%.
From the supply and demand side of the PTA market itself, the 2.5 million-ton PTA plant in Yisheng Hainan dropped to 50% last weekend, and the recovery time has yet to be determined. Jiatong Energy and Pengwei petrochemical plants were overhauled at the end of July, and the start of PTA enterprises continued to decline. At present, the start of the industry as a whole has dropped to a level around 77%. From the demand side, the start of the polyester industry to maintain a low level, polyester enterprises to limit production and price protection measures, the late polyester enterprises still have production reduction plans. With the deepening of the off-season atmosphere in summer, the terminal textile demand weakens, and the demand side suppresses the market. The supply and demand side is insufficient to support the market.
From the perspective of the fundamentals of ethylene glycol itself, recently, with the resumption of the maintenance of ethylene glycol, the start of the industry has rebounded steadily, and the overall start of the ethylene glycol industry has risen to around 60%. The inventory of ethylene glycol in the main reservoir area of East China is 598800 tons, an increase of 32800 tons over the same period last week. However, the recent arrival of ethylene glycol port is on the low side, and the inventory in the main port of East China is still expected to be eliminated. Supply-side support to the market is limited; demand: downstream polyester load is reduced, coupled with the off-season impact of terminal textile demand, buying to maintain rigid demand, demand is a drag on the market.
From the basic end of polyester, the recent start-up load of polyester enterprises has been maintained at a low level around 84%. The enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is not high, coupled with the recent increase in production reduction and negative reduction of polyester staple fiber enterprises, the load of short-term polyester enterprises will remain low. With the recent typhoon and high temperature season, terminal weaving downtime has increased, and industry start-up has continued to decline. at present, the overall start-up of weaving enterprises is around 64%. The overall performance of new orders is weak, the off-season atmosphere in the market is getting stronger, and the inventory pressure in the industry continues to increase.
Generally speaking, at present, there is no sign of improvement in the supply and demand side of polyester raw materials, which is insufficient to support the market. The international crude oil market fluctuates frequently and the cost promotes the formation of the market. Polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market lack of sustainable driving force, the short-term market will still maintain range fluctuations. Due to the low level of processing fees of various varieties in the polyester industry chain, polyester enterprises continue to maintain the price-up state, with small fluctuations at the cost end, so the short-term polyester market may be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. Pay close attention to the promotion of international crude oil and market supply and demand to the market.
