Since the middle of the year, China's polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market continues to be in a volatile and strong pattern. Among them, the PTA market fluctuated higher with the support of cost promotion and supply tightening. The East China PTA spot market rose from 5775 yuan / ton on the 11th to 5960 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 3.20%. Ethylene glycol market due to the tightening of the supply side, boost market mentality, market confidence increased, driving the market to buy gas rebounded, ethylene glycol market negotiation focus continued to rise. The market price of ethylene glycol in East China has risen to 4525 yuan / ton from 4310 yuan / ton on May 11, an increase of 4.99%.
At present, the international crude oil trend is strengthening, and market participants generally expect OPEC and its production reduction allies to decide at the June 2 meeting to maintain the current voluntary production reduction agreement in the third quarter, which may also be extended until the end of the year. Summer travel in the United States will reach its peak, with the peak season of traditional demand. In addition, although the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire negotiations continued, but the Israeli military action has not stopped, the geopolitical situation has not been further eased. On the whole, international crude oil prices may still have room to rise. The cost side promotes the continuous formation of the polyester market.
From the point of view of the supply and demand side of the PTA market, the overhaul or production reduction of PTA enterprises increased in May, and the start-up of the industry was maintained at a level of 70%. However, the polyester load also continued to decline during the month, so the extent of PTA depooling narrowed. The 3.6 million-ton PTA plant of Yisheng new material will restart in early June, while 900000 tons of Pengwei and 2.2 million tons of Hanbang Petrochemical are expected to restart in June. Later, with the restoration of the maintenance equipment, the market supply will gradually increase, and the late PTA processing fees will be under pressure. Coupled with the terminal textile demand will begin to enter the traditional demand off-season, polyester load is difficult to pick up space, demand-side pressure, the late PTA market rebound space will be limited.
From the perspective of the fundamentals of ethylene glycol itself, the recent shipments of ethylene glycol in East China port are good, the inventory at the main port continues to decline, the restart of some maintenance equipment such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhenhai and Fujian Union has been delayed, and supply and demand continue to be tight. In addition, the atmosphere of China's commodity market is strong, ethylene glycol still maintains a rebound trend in the short term. In the medium and long term, with the restoration of ethylene glycol maintenance equipment, coupled with the restart of overseas Saudi Arabia, Canada and other devices, imports will increase, and port inventory will face certain growth pressure. Under the expectation of weakening on the supply and demand side, there is still some pressure on the ethylene glycol market in the later stage.
Recently, although the polyester market is following the rise of raw materials slightly, the production and sales of polyester filament enterprises are maintained at about 4-50%, and that of polyester staple fiber enterprises are maintained at around 4-60%. The decline in enterprise production and sales will also put pressure on enterprise inventory. With the heat of the weather, the terminal textile demand will gradually enter the off-season of traditional demand, the new orders of domestic and foreign trade will begin to weaken, the off-season characteristics of the industry will appear, and the end customers will only place orders on demand. Weaving start-up load began to decline, at present, the mainstream of texturing start-up is 80-90%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving start-up is mostly 6-70%, terminal demand will be expected to decline seasonally.
For the future, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market short-term in the cost is strong and the commodity market atmosphere is warm, the market is still bullish, but in the later stage, with the weakening of the supply and demand side of the polyester market itself, it will certainly suppress the formation of the market, so in the medium and long term, the upward space of the market will be limited. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
