During the May Day holiday, the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire agreement made the smoothest progress so far this year, the geographical situation is expected to further ease, and the potential supply risks continue to be reduced. On the demand side, the economic and demand outlook continues to put pressure on oil prices. International oil prices fell, the biggest weekly percentage decline since February. WTI futures fell $5.74, or 6.85%, while Brent crude oil futures fell $6.54, or 7.31%. The geo-risk premium continues to fall. Back from the holiday, PTA futures opened sharply lower, PTA spot market volatility fell, the negotiation price fell to around 5840 yuan / ton, down 1.27%. Traders and polyester factories are mainly low-level replenishment, the market trading atmosphere is OK. With the decline of the polyester raw material market, cost-end pressure, polyester market trends have a small pullback.
From the PTA supply side point of view, the recent increase in the maintenance of PTA devices, a sharp decline in industry start-up, market supply tightened, the market to form a certain positive support. The 2.5 million-ton PTA plant of Honggang Sinopec was shut down and overhauled as planned on May 6, and is expected to be overhauled for 2 weeks. The 2.2 million-ton PTA plant of Jiaxing Sinopec stopped on May 5th and is scheduled to be overhauled for 2 weeks. Dongying Weilian 2.5 million-ton PTA plant was stopped as planned on May 6th and is expected to be overhauled for 40 days. The 2.5 million-ton plant in Hengli Huizhou was temporarily stopped on May 6th and is expected to be around 5 days. PTA business starts fell to a low around 70%.
During the May Day period, the shipment volume of ethylene glycol port continued to rise, the port inventory decreased significantly, and the short-term port maintained the pace of destocking. The 600000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Sanning, Hubei Province is scheduled to be revamped on May 10th. A 300000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical Industry was stopped for overhaul at the end of April and is initially expected to restart in mid-late May. Henan Yongcheng 200000 ton ethylene glycol plant has an overhaul plan from May to June. The 800000-ton ethylene glycol plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped on March 20. It was originally planned to restart in early May, but the restart is expected to be delayed. There are no start-up plans for May. The 900000-ton ethylene glycol plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was overhauled in early April and was scheduled to restart in early May, but it will not restart temporarily in May. The start-up of the ethylene glycol industry is maintained at the level of 50%, and the market supply shrinks, forming a favorable support for the market.
During the May Day period, the 1 million-ton polyester plant in Xiaoshan area was shut down at the beginning of the month due to boiler transformation, and the restart time was uncertain, involving products such as polyester filament and polyester chips. Due to the transformation of the boiler, its 600000-ton polyester plant was shut down and revamped on the evening of May 5th, and the specific restart time was not determined, involving polyester filaments and polyester chips. In addition, a set of 600000-ton plant in Jiangsu Province temporarily stopped on the 7th, and the start-up of the polyester industry has dropped rapidly to below 90%.
With the twists and turns of cease-fire negotiations in Gaza, Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire negotiations have been blocked again, and the probability of reaching a cease-fire agreement has declined in the short term; second, OPEC+ does not rule out the possibility of further postponing production cuts, while Saudi Arabia's outlook for Asian demand has improved, all of which have brought positive support. International crude oil futures prices may have room to rise. Cost end to promote the formation of the market, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market supply and demand end drive, market bottom support is strong, it is expected that the short-term market will be narrow shock, polyester raw material end support, polyester market offer will be mainly adjusted slightly with the cost, downstream cautious wait-and-see, market production and sales light. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
