Since the end of March China's polyester industry market began to shock and pull up, polyester raw material PTA market is gradually higher, the cost end is good support, driving the polyester market trend for the better. According to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on March 31, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.8% in March, up 1.7% from the previous month, above the tipping point, and the manufacturing sector rebounded. This is the first time in months that manufacturing PMI6 has risen above the tipping point. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, market activity increased. The index rebounded sharply and returned above the line of rise and fall, which is not only affected by seasonal factors, but also indicates that the recovery trend of the economy is further clear. Boosted by the macro positive, China's commodity market rebounded, entering April, the main market of PTA futures quickly broke through the integer mark of 6000 yuan.
Recently, PTA enterprises began to focus on the announcement of maintenance plans, market supply is expected to tighten. The 2.5 million-ton Hengli Huizhou production line is scheduled to be stopped for maintenance on April 7, and the restart time has yet to be determined. The 3 million ton production line of Jiatong Energy Co., Ltd. is scheduled to start stopping and overhauling on April 8, and the restart time has yet to be determined. The 1 million-ton PTA plant in Sichuan is scheduled to be stopped and overhauled on April 2nd, which is expected to take 15 days or so. Recently, the plant load of PTA enterprises has been maintained at a level of less than 80%, but with the increase of maintenance equipment, the start-up of the industry will continue to decline, and the social inventory of PTA will gradually decline. Downstream polyester load will maintain 90% near the high, polyester enterprises buy well, market volume transactions, spot basis and prices are both strong. The high position of the international crude oil market is strong, and the cost forms the support to the market.
Recently, the ethylene glycol market has maintained a narrow range of shocks, and the market volatility space has narrowed. The high level of the international crude oil market supports the market, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market fluctuates slightly. Under the support of rigid demand, the East China port of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, coupled with the increase of centralized overhaul of ethylene glycol plant in China in April, the decline of industry start-up, and the expected reduction of market supply; on the demand side: the downstream polyester load rose to a high level, and the demand side was relatively stable. Recently, the international crude oil market has maintained a high level, and the cost side has promoted the market.
As the weather begins to warm up, the peak demand season of the traditional "gold, silver and silver four" shows, and the start load of terminal weaving has climbed to a high of 82%, far exceeding the level of the same period in previous years. The atmosphere of inquiry in spring and summer continues to heat up, and at the end of March, the demand for conventional products is still strong, market orders have improved, foreign trade orders have moderately improved, and the number of days of terminal weaving orders has been flat at around 17 days, which is the highest in recent years. With the gradual delivery of orders, the number of days in stock of conventional grey cloth has dropped to about 20 days, which is at a relatively low level.
At present, international crude oil is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the high-level operation continues, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian refineries, the situation in the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine continues to be unstable, and the geographical situation is still the main factor supporting international oil prices. the overall driving factors of the crude oil market are still strong, but the lack of guiding events and long-short jigsaw are still there. Polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market supply and demand end-driven, short-term market trend stronger, polyester raw material end-driven, polyester market offer will be slightly adjusted with the cost, downstream weaving mills rigid demand follow-up, market production and sales pick up. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
