 |
The ethanol market, which has been in a row for five months, saw a slight increase in some quotes today. Prices in Northeast China increased by 50 yuan/ton, and prices in Henan increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The main factors supporting the rise are: 1. After a long period of decline, companies have a higher mentality of pulling up; 2. The price of raw material corn continues to rise, and the cost is high; 3. After the holiday, chemical equipment has resumed and just needed to purchase; 4. Freight rates have been lowered. Ex-factory prices of companies have support for rising prices; 5. Some companies hold orders, and their quotations have increased, waiting for downstream consumption of early orders.
Let's take a specific look at the market situation:
From a supply perspective: The equipment in the large factory in Heilongjiang in Northeast China is normal, and the output of edible ethanol is higher than that of fuel ethanol. Heilongjiang COFCO Zhaodong's edible ethanol production has been put into production, and no products have been produced before the end of press time. Heilongjiang Wanli Runda mainly produces fuels and eats small amounts. The unit in Luobei, Heilongjiang was shut down. Heilongjiang Zhongke Green Plant stable production. The Ruiyang plant in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia is normal, the Zhalantun plant is normal, and the Shuntong plant in Inner Mongolia is shut down. Jilin Dachang plant is stable, has no water for a short time, and has not been recovered yet. The shutdown of the Fuyu Huihai device has not been restored. Equipment in individual factories in Mengzhou, Henan Province resumed after a short stop. Henan Tianguan device stopped briefly. In terms of cassava ethanol: The installation in Jiangsu Huatang in East China is normal. The installation was shut down during the Spring Festival in Changxing, Zhenjiang. The installation is currently resuming production. The Jinmaoyuan ethanol installation in Lianyungang is shut down. No other installation in Jiangsu is produced. Anhui Province reduced production, and Anhui COFCO produced fuel at full capacity. Overall, the supply is sufficient in the Northeast. Not much cassava ethanol started in East China under cost pressure, and part of it consumes corn ethanol.
Cost: Corn in Northeast China continues to rise, policy support prices continue to rise, and prices in Shandong have fallen due to concentrated quantities. ddgs rebounded after rising corn prices. The price of dried cassava fob in Thailand has increased, tapioca starch has been actively purchased, and local ethanol factories have consumed it. Chinese ethanol factories have started purchasing since the price was not high in the early stage, and the price of dried cassava has increased significantly. Cost is good support.
Downstream demand is mainly in chemical industry. Some ethyl acetate factories resumed production after shutting down during the Spring Festival. Other chemical industry demand gradually recovered, demand increased, and liquor demand was average. Before the Spring Festival, traders did not actively stock up on the psychological support of the weak market in the later period. After the holiday, prices dropped to low points and began purchasing, and orders increased.
China's ethanol market is expected to stabilize or rise, and costs in the Northeast region will rise. Recently, some companies have signed more contracts and shipped orders. Orders were delivered in Henan, short-term supply increased, corporate orders were delivered, and prices were maintained. Short-term supply in East China has increased, and downstream chemicals are just in need of procurement.
