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Analysis of the current situation of China's ethanol market after returning from the holiday

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February 23, 2024, 4:55 PM


After returning from the Spring Festival, China's ethanol market prices continued to decline before the festival. During the Spring Festival, large factories in Northeast China maintained normal operation, and corporate inventories increased. After returning from the festival, the price of Henan premium ethanol in the Chinese ethanol market was lowered by 150 yuan/ton; the quotation of a large factory in Jilin in Northeast China was stable and the transaction price was lowered, and the quotation of some factories was lowered by 50 yuan/ton. The quotation of a large factory in Heilongjiang was stable, while other quotations weakened; The price of East China and Northern Jiangsu was lowered by 50 yuan/ton; the quotation of fuel ethanol companies was lowered; the price of coal ethanol was lowered; the price of coal and ethanol was lowered; the replenishment of downstream chemicals, the price of individual delivery weakened, while others fluctuated slightly; Logistics prices rose slightly; Regional Chinese refinery purchase prices weakened.

During the Spring Festival in Henan, the equipment was not shut down. Production was normal, and export volume was limited. Prices continued to weaken after the Spring Festival. Snowfall later this week affected the speed of shipments. Production in the main factories in East China is normal, shipments are average, and prices are stable after being lowered by 50 yuan/ton. Downstream chemical replenishment is obvious. In terms of fuel ethanol, companies have lowered their quotations, and some orders have been shipped. This week, the main business began purchasing. Local refineries have obviously replenished their stocks, but some shipping mentality has been positive and the prices have weakened. In terms of coal and ethanol, large orders returned after the holiday remained stable, and early orders were shipped.

Specific details of ethanol supply: 4 factories in Hongzhan, Heilongjiang are operating normally, Wanli Runda production is stable, COFCO Zhaodong's edible production is shut down, Baoquanling's equipment is shut down, Luobei's shutdown, Friendship's shutdown, Dongning's shutdown, Shenglong Production, Chifeng Ruiyang Production, Zhalantun Production, Jufeng's shutdown. Jilin Tianyi Production, Fukang Production, Dongfeng Production, Xintianlong Normal Production, Fuyu Huihai Production, Zhongke Green Production, Shuntong Production, Limu Production, Inner Mongolia Jietainuo Plant Production. Lianhai production and Maibohui equipment in eastern and southern Jiangsu areas were shut down, Changxing was shut down, flower hall production in northern Jiangsu was shut down, Longhe was shut down, Romaite was shut down, Guannan was shut down, Dongcheng was shut down, Jin Changlin was shut down, Suchun equipment was shut down, Guohua was shut down, Kangde was shut down, Shandong Fulaichun was shut down, Zhenlong was shut down, Yingxuan Production, Zhongyu, Guan County Xinrui, Ququ wind was normal, and Jinyimeng was normal. Produced in Wanshen, Anhui, the Wuhechun plant was shut down, and produced by Anhui COFCO.

China's ethanol price trend is expected to be stable and weak in the short term. The equipment of large factories in Northeast China is operating normally, and the inventory is accumulated during the Spring Festival. Some of the inventory is sent to the port. We continue to observe the inventory of the large factories. Construction in East China increased in March, which is expected to affect the trend of ethanol prices in East China in the later period. Orders in Henan were average after prices continued to fall, and snowfall weather affected delivery speed. Coal-based ethanol products from newly put into operation were put on the market in March, which affected the price trend of coal-based ethanol.