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China's ethanol supply situation at the beginning of 2024 and market forecasts around the Spring Festival

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January 31, 2024, 5:24 PM

In January 2024, China's edible and industrial ethanol output was about 503.24 million tons, a decrease of 50.26 million tons from the previous month, and edible and industrial ethanol output declined. Fuel ethanol production has not fluctuated much. Fuel ethanol production in January was 318,500 tons, an increase of 0,200 tons from the previous month. Among them, corn ethanol in Northeast China started at 83.99%, and the output was 288,750 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous month (some enterprises in Inner Mongolia were offline). Cassava ethanol in East China started at 37.56%, and the output was about 71,550 tons, a decrease of 26,450 tons from the previous month. Coal ethanol output in January was around 53,940 tons, a decrease of 11,060 tons from the previous month.

 

As of the end of the month, Heilongjiang Hongzhan's edible production and fuel production were stable in January; Wanli Runda mainly produced fuels; COFCO Zhaodong's edible production was shut down; the Luobei plant was operating normally, and Youyi was shut down for Shenglong production. Fuyu Huihai Production. Jilin Tianyu produces normally and Fukang produces normally; Dongfeng produces normally and Xintianlong operates normally. Production in Ruiyang, Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, is normal, production is reduced in Zhalantun, Shuntong Plant No. 25 has stopped feeding, and Jietainuo Plant in Inner Mongolia is normal. Zhongke Green produces normally. Lianhai Production and Maibohui Plant in East China and southern Jiangsu were shut down, Changxing Plant Production was shut down, Huating East Plant in northern Jiangsu was shut down, Longhe was shut down, Romaite was shut down, Guannan was shut down, Dongcheng was shut down, Jinchanglin was shut down, Guohua Production, Suchun was shut down, Shandong Fulaichun was shut down, Zhenlong Production, Yingxuan, Zhongyu, Guan County Xinrui, Qqu wind was normal, and Jinyimeng production reduced. Anhui COFCO switched production to produce all fuels, the Wuhechun plant was shut down, and the Wanshen plant was normal. The equipment at the premium factory in Mengzhou, Henan Province is unstable in the middle and late of this month. The coal-based ethanol factory has full equipment production, and some units have stopped production. The Henan unit is normal, and the Hunan by-product unit is normal. In terms of fuel ethanol: SDIC Jidong and Tieling plants are producing normally, and SDIC Hailun is producing normally. Liaoyuan Jufeng stopped. Hongzhan's fuel is stable. Wanli's output is stable and COFCO equipment is normal. Henan Tianguan fuel production is normal. Jilin fuel production is normal.

China's ethanol prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. As the Spring Festival approaches, corn ethanol companies in Northeast China are producing normally, but logistics is gradually on holiday, downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the market is about to enter a state of stagnation. Advance orders in Henan continue to be shipped, waiting for company equipment updates. The last round of chemical industry in East China was stocking up before the festival, and prices remained stable. Some ethyl acetate factories had plans to shut down during the Spring Festival. Orders and shipments of fuel ethanol remained stable. Some shipping mentality in coal and ethanol is positive and weak. Some refineries are nearing completion of pre-holiday preparations. Purchase volumes have been signed during the Spring Festival. Prices remain high during the Spring Festival due to the impact of first transportation, but the current purchase prices are weak.