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In 2023, the main consumption of ethanol in China will be chemical industry, followed by consumption. Chemical industry mainly includes ethyl acetate, ethylamine, acetaldehyde, ethyl acrylate, ethyl methyl carbonate, flame retardant, sodium ethoxide, inks, pesticide intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates, daily chemicals, flavors and fragrances, etc. In terms of consumption, liquor is mainly used, with food additions, etc. Among them, the main representative of chemical consumption is ethyl acetate, and there is basically no obvious peak season. 1-12 In January, the average start of ethyl acetate was around 47.45%, consuming a total of 1.03 million tons of ethanol. In June, the start of ethyl acetate reached a minimum of 42.30%. Some enterprises 'equipment began to be repaired, and the start of the industry declined. With the development of new energy, ethyl methyl carbonate has become a new downstream consumption point for ethanol. In 2023, the production capacity of ethyl methyl carbonate will expand significantly, with a total production capacity of 1.556 million tons/year. However, due to the loss of downstream production, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, resulting in low start-up of the ethyl methyl carbonate industry. In 2023, the average start-up of ethyl methyl carbonate will be around 30%.
From January to December 2023, the decline in liquor industry output narrowed to 549,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 4%; from January to December, liquor output of enterprises above designated size was 4.492 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. Total liquor production in 2023 showed a slight contraction trend. So far, China's liquor production above designated size has declined for the seventh consecutive year.
Demand for liquor is obvious in the weak and peak seasons. Summer is basically the off-season for liquor consumption. Demand began to pick up in September, and consumption increased significantly in the month before major holidays. After the implementation of the new policy, the overall consumption of ethanol by liquor has been greatly reduced, and major factories have increased their home-brewed processes. In the post-epidemic era, China's economy has recovered slowly, people have conservative consumption, and the demand for liquor has also declined simultaneously. It is expected that liquor will be consumed in 2023. The consumption of ethanol is about 700,000 tons/year.
In 2023, the largest proportion of downstream will be chemical industry, accounting for 86.60% of the country's consumption. Chemical industry mainly consists of ethyl acetate, and liquor is 13.40%. The total production capacity of chemical ethyl acetate is 3.68 million tons, the total production capacity of ethylamine is about 200,000 tons, the total production capacity of ethyl methyl carbonate is more than 1.31 million tons, and there are about 1000 liquor companies.
In 2023, ethanol consumption and chemical industry areas are mainly concentrated in East China. East China mainly consumes ethyl acetate, ethylamine, ethyl acrylate, ethyl methyl carbonate, pesticide intermediates, etc.; North China mainly consumes liquor, food additives, and pesticide intermediates; Central China Consumption of liquor, chemicals and food additives; Southwest China mainly consumes liquor, a small amount of chemicals; Northeast China mainly consumes liquor, and some of the goods are sent to East China and South China for chemical and daily chemical consumption; South China mainly consumes chemical ethyl acetate, daily chemical consumption, and ink printing and dyeing consumption.
