The price index of China's ethylene glycol market shows a low volatility pattern in 2023. China's economic development has rebounded and improved this year, but the current improvement in economic operation is mainly restorative, and the endogenous driving force is not strong. At the same time, the global economy is still in the tightening stage formed by monetary policy tightening in some developed economies. Economic growth faces high uncertainty. The international political and economic environment is complex and changeable, and the uncertainty of geopolitical risks has a negative impact on the market. Considering the economic situation outside China, the frequent fluctuations in international crude oil prices, the external macroeconomic influence, and the influence of the fundamentals of supply and demand of ethylene glycol, the price fluctuation range of China's ethylene glycol market has narrowed this year, compared with previous years. The market as a whole maintained a low and volatile market. According to the monitoring of Tudor data, the average price index in 2023 is 4082, the highest price is at the end of December, the highest price is 4353.27, the lowest is 3893.40 at the end of June, and the vibration amplitude is around 459.87.
In January, China's ethylene glycol market rebounded narrowly. With the end of the epidemic, the market is optimistic about the economic recovery, macro sentiment is high, the overall performance of commodities is strong, driving the ethylene glycol shock to strengthen. On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand of ethylene glycol is still strong, imports are shrinking, demand side continues to shrink due to Spring Festival maintenance factors, and port inventory is rising. By the end of the month, the ethylene glycol market in East China had risen to 4360 yuan / ton. In mid-early February, the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol market moved down. International oil prices fell, cost-side support weakened; during the Spring Festival, shipments arrived smoothly and inventories began to accumulate. After the festival, the recovery in the lower reaches is slow, the port shipments have improved slightly, and the inventory in the main port of East China has been reduced, but due to the limited enthusiasm of picking up goods downstream, the inventory in the subsequent main port has increased slightly. At the end of the month, the price of ethylene glycol in China rose in shock. The directional drive of the market is slightly insufficient, so the increase of the market is limited. From March to mid-May, China's ethylene glycol market maintained a weak and volatile pattern. The international oil price is in the game between the reduction of OPCE production and the weakening demand under the expectation of economic recession, and the external drive is insufficient. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol in China maintains a tight balance. In the traditional peak season, the start-up load of polyester enterprises gradually increases, while the increment of supply in China is clear, the import volume is squeezed sharply, and the overall inventory of the main port of East China does not change much. The spot market of ethylene glycol is mainly volatile. The ethylene glycol market began to fluctuate and weaken in the second half of May. The debt ceiling agreement in the United States has been delayed, the macro panic is strong, the overall trend of commodities is depressed, the Chinese ethylene glycol spot market lacks buying follow-up, and the market center of gravity continues to decline. By the end of June, market prices had fallen to the lowest level of the year, with quotations in East China around 3810 yuan / ton.
In July, China's ethylene glycol market ushered in a wave of rally. The international crude oil market is strong, and the cost supports the market. China's policy boosted, strong commodity markets led to bullish sentiment, and market offers continued to rise slightly. There are too many pre-arrival ports in the port, but the unexpected maintenance equipment in China is increased, the downstream polyester load is high, and the antifreeze is in the peak season of production and marketing, and the demand side performs well. Under the influence of multiple factors, the market faces upward resistance. By the end of the month, the price in East China had risen to 4130 yuan / ton. In mid-early August, the ethylene glycol market was weak and volatile. The concussion of international oil prices and the spread of macro bearish sentiment led to a general decline in the commodity market and a slight correction in the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market. From late August to mid-September, the ethylene glycol market again ushered in a sharp rally. The international crude oil market remained strong, driving long sentiment in the market, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market continued to rise. On September 19th, the price quoted in East China rose as high as 4270 yuan / ton.
From late September to mid-October, the ethylene glycol market began to shake back. International crude oil fell sharply, costs put pressure on the market, the atmosphere of the commodity market was weak, the market willingness to ship increased, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market continued to fall. From mid-October to early December, the ethylene glycol market as a whole maintained low and narrow fluctuations, although the cost end support was still there, while there were many external unstable factors, the market was lack of continuous drive, and the market price remained low. Since December 6, the market price of ethylene glycol has continued to fluctuate and rise. Under the boost of the commodity market atmosphere, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the Red Sea shipping problem continues to ferment, the international crude oil market continues to rise, boosting the market mentality, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market continues to rise. Affected by shipping, the arrival of ethylene glycol port decreased, inventory showed a slight downward trend, market supply is expected to decrease, giving a boost to the market. To 22, the ethylene glycol market rose to a new high for the year, and the East China market rose to 4430 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the international crude oil market fell, suppressing the market mentality, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market began to weaken. The weak supply and demand side of the market suppresses the formation of the market.
