Lead: Recently, with the continuous rebound in the PTA and ethylene glycol markets of polyester raw materials, the pressure on production costs of polyester companies has increased. The polyester market can only passively follow up with the increase in raw materials. However, after the downstream concentrated replenishment of positions, the enthusiasm for continuing to stock up has been greatly reduced. Production and sales of polyester companies fell.
Since last Friday, the market trend of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol has continued to rebound. The rise in the international crude oil market has boosted, cost-side support has strengthened, coupled with the improvement of the atmosphere in China's commodity market, PTA and ethylene glycol futures markets have fluctuated and rose. From the perspective of PTA's own supply and demand side, Yisheng Ningbo and Yisheng New Materials have a total of 11.4 million tons of PTA production capacity units, which has reduced the market supply, while the downstream polyester load has remained high, and the market supply and demand side has formed a certain support for the market. As of now, the East China PTA spot market negotiations are around 5710 yuan/ton. The spot basis remains, and transactions and negotiations around 5-15 for delivery at the main port this week and next week. Judging from the supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself, the arrival of ethylene glycol from ports to ports has decreased, port inventories have begun to be removed, and supply expectations have decreased. Under the rigid support of downstream polyester demand, the mentality of the ethylene glycol market has been boosted to a certain extent. So far, the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market has increased slightly, with prices in East China around 4,170 - 4,180 yuan/ton, and prices in South China around 4250 yuan/ton.
The market for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol continues to rise, and cost pressures increase. The polyester market passively follows the rise of raw materials. Last Friday, driven by the buying atmosphere in the market, the enthusiasm of terminals for stocking increased, and the production and sales of polyester companies rebounded significantly. Among them, the average production and sales of polyester filament companies reached more than 200%, the average production and sales of polyester staple fiber companies reached 130%, and the average production and sales of polyester chip companies reached 120%. However, as the polyester market continued to rise, the market's enthusiasm for chasing growth weakened and market confidence was insufficient. The production and sales of polyester companies began to fall. At the beginning of the week, the average production and sales of polyester companies dropped to about 40-50%. As production and sales fade, the inventory pressure of polyester companies may re-enter the upward channel. As of last weekend, among them, the polyester chip enterprise warehouse existed for about 8-10 days, the polyester POY inventory was about 14-16 days, the polyester DTY inventory was about 25-27 days, the polyester FDY inventory was about 18-20 days, and the polyester staple fiber inventory was around 8-10 days.
At present, the off-season atmosphere of terminal textile demand continues to deepen, the number of terminal orders has declined simultaneously, the market transaction volume has shrunk, and market orders have been unclear in the later period. Therefore, Chinese weaving companies have begun to reduce their load. Currently, the comprehensive weaving start has dropped back to around 78%, and the inventory of finished grey cloth has begun to accumulate slightly. In the later period, with the impact of the off-season atmosphere at the end of the year, terminal weaving companies are still expected to decline further.
Although the polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol markets have been driven by macro aspects recently, the short-term market trend has strengthened, and costs have supported the market, the supply and demand side of polyester itself has weakened, and the pressure on the market itself has increased. In the short term, polyester market prices may remain within a narrow range of fluctuations. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
