Lead: Recently, China's polyester market as a whole has maintained a stalemate and consolidation pattern. The rise in the international crude oil market has boosted the market atmosphere. The atmosphere in China's commodity market has improved, providing support for the polyester raw material market. However, due to the influence of polyester's own supply and demand side, the polyester market has weak rebound momentum.
Since the end of November, the price fluctuations in China's polyester market have narrowed, the market has lacked sustained movement, and the market mentality has become cautious. Last weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia urged OPEC and its production reduction allies to participate in production cuts. International oil prices rebounded after falling for six consecutive trading days. However, the market continues to question how much OPEC and its production reduction allies will cut production next year, while facing economic uncertainty. Oil demand is difficult to predict, and European and American crude oil futures have stabilized this week. The promotion of international crude oil is weak, so the PTA spot market for polyester raw materials has remained mainly in a narrow range. As of now, the East China PTA spot market negotiations are around 5730 yuan/ton. The spot basis has dropped, and transactions and discussions have been held around 5-25 for delivery at the main port this week and next week. In the absence of cost support, the polyester market is in a cautious wait-and-see posture, and the space for market price fluctuations has narrowed.
Judging from the supply and demand of PTA itself, with the recovery of Yisheng Huahua, Hengli Huizhou and Weilian units, as well as the mass production of another new production line in Yisheng Hainan, the overall industry start-up has increased to a high of more than 80%, and the market supply has gradually increased. Therefore, PTA market supply will remain loose in the later period. The downstream polyester load remained stable, while under the influence of the off-season of terminal textile demand, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials was low, and the market supply and demand side was weak. The market lacks substantial support, so the short-term PTA spot market is still difficult to get rid of the trend of weak adjustment.
Judging from the supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself, ethylene glycol stocks in the main port of East China have remained high recently, and the construction of the ethylene glycol industry will rebound slightly. Market supply expectations are still relatively loose. On the demand side: the downstream polyester load remains stable, and buying is just in need. Stable, the market supply and demand side has general support for the market. The market lacks a sustained drive, and China's ethylene glycol market prices will remain volatile in the short term. In the later period, attention will also be paid to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of on-site equipment.
Judging from the supply and demand of polyester itself, the recent start-up of China's polyester industry has remained at a high level of around 90%. The market supply is sufficient and manufacturers 'inventory pressure is high, which has put pressure on the market. As the textile off-season atmosphere deepens, the sustainability of terminal textile orders is poor, and demand expectations in the future market continue to weaken. The start-up of Chinese weaving enterprises has begun to decline slightly. In addition, with sufficient raw materials in the terminal weaving factory, more and less purchases are mainly made on demand. Polyester enterprises 'production and sales remain light, and market supply and demand support weakens. Therefore, the polyester market may maintain a stalemate and consolidation pattern in the short term.
The macro atmosphere is stable and the market lacks sustained drive. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets are driven by their own supply and demand sides. It is expected that the short-term market will adjust within a narrow range, the polyester raw material side will be supported firmly, and the polyester market offers will be slightly adjusted mainly. The terminal just needs to stock up, and the market production and sales are light. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later period, we will pay close attention to changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
