Introduction: recently, with the continuous decline in the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises has been gradually reduced, although the support of the cost end to the market has been weakened, while the polyester market is supported by its own supply and demand, the market price has mostly maintained a stalemate, so the production profit level of polyester enterprises continues to improve.
Since late November, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market began to turn around. The negative atmosphere in the commodity market suppressed the formation of the market, and the PTA and ethylene glycol futures markets fell back sharply. In December, investors were skeptical about the latest decision of OPEC and its production reduction allies to cut supply. The international crude oil market continued to fall, suppressing the market mentality, and the PTA and ethylene glycol futures markets continued to weaken.
For PTA spot market fundamentals are still empty, Yi Shenghua PTA device reduced to 7-80%, for a week; Sichuan can throw in the maintenance device to resume start-up in early December; Yisheng Hainan another new device is put into production, coupled with Hanbang old equipment is expected to restart, so the PTA market supply is relatively abundant, while December PTA factory maintenance plan is less, so PTA accumulation is expected to be enhanced. The downstream polyester load remains stable, but under the influence of the off-season terminal textile demand, the purchasing enthusiasm of raw materials is low, and the supply and demand side of the market is weak. Lack of market support, the PTA spot market continues to fall, so far, East China PTA spot market negotiations fell to 5650 yuan / ton. Spot basis difference fell, this week and next week delivery 01 Pingshui-Shengshui 5 near the transaction and negotiations. Traders and polyester factories rigid demand to buy mainly, the market mentality is cautious.
Recently, the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol has also weakened. with the commissioning and delivery of the new units of Yuneng and Zhongkun, coupled with the restoration of the previous maintenance equipment, the spot supply of ethylene glycol has increased, the inventory of ports in East China has remained high, and the market supply pressure has increased. Demand: downstream polyester load remains high, but the off-season impact of terminal textile demand, downstream orders slow down the pace of procurement, the formation of a certain pressure on the market. In addition, there are many external unstable factors and the lack of continuous drive in the market, so the price of ethylene glycol in China is weakening in a narrow range. Up to now, the quotation in East China is around 4010-4020 yuan / ton, and the firm offer is light.
With the shock of the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises has been reduced, although the polyester product market is also adjusted with the raw materials, but the overall decline is small, so the profits of polyester enterprises began to improve. The production profits of polyester chips and polyester enterprises have turned from losses to profits, and the production losses of polyester bottle chips have been reduced. Up to now, the profit of polyester chip product is 97 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-178 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is 22 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber product profit is 37 yuan / ton.
For the future, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol due to the lack of cost support, coupled with their own supply and demand side continues to be weak, the short-term weak pattern is difficult to change, the cost end to the polyester market support is insufficient. Recently, the polyester chip market is in sufficient supply, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is greater, which suppresses the formation of the market. The persistence of terminal textile orders is poor, downstream chip spinning, film and other industries after the market demand began to weaken, coupled with the spinning factory raw materials are fully prepared, more on demand and a small amount of procurement. Under the cost pressure, it is expected that the short-term Chinese polyester market will maintain a low finishing trend. We still need to pay close attention to the trend of the raw material market.
