Introduction: recently, China's polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market continues to decline, raw material PTA market supply pressure increases, and demand follow-up is limited, so weak supply and demand pressure on the market. Under the pressure of the decline of raw materials, the polyester market is weakening, so the short-term polyester market is still facing greater pressure.
In late November, China's PTA spot market began to turn around. The negative atmosphere of the commodity market suppressed the formation of the market, the capital side retracted, and the PTA futures market began to adjust sharply. Spot basis fluctuates slightly, traders and polyester factories buy mainly in rigid demand, and the market mentality is cautious. So far, East China PTA spot market negotiations reference 5695 yuan / ton. This week and next week, the main port delivery 01 litres of water 18-25 near the transaction and negotiations. From the point of view of the supply side, the 2.2 million-ton plant of Hengli Petrochemical resumed start-up at the end of the month, the maintenance units of Yisheng Ningbo and Yizheng resumed in late November, and a new 1.25 million-ton production line in Yisheng Hainan was raised to full capacity at the end of the month. A 2.5 million-ton plant in Hengli Huizhou was reduced to 50%. By the end of the month, Zhuhai Ineos and Sichuan energy maintenance equipment will resume start-up, coupled with Hanbang's old equipment is expected to restart, the market supply is expected to continue to increase. In the later stage, the number of PTA maintenance devices is reduced, so the supply of PTA market will remain loose in the later stage. The downstream polyester load remains stable, while the terminal textile demand enters the off-season, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is low, and the supply and demand side of the market is weak.
In mid-late November, the market price of ethylene glycol continued to decline. The international crude oil market remains weak, the cost support is limited, the atmosphere of China's commodity market is empty, suppressing the market mentality, and the focus of negotiations in the ethylene glycol market continues to decline slightly. Up to now, the quotation in East China is around 4035-4040 yuan / ton, and the firm offer is light.
With the continuous decline of the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises has been reduced. Affected by cold air, the demand for warm fabric stock increases in winter, and the terminal weaving load continues to pick up slightly. Under the support of good demand, the polyester market falls slowly, and the market decline is smaller than that of raw material markets. as a result, the overall profit level of Chinese polyester enterprises has improved, polyester chips and polyester staple fiber production gradually turn losses into profits, polyester bottle chips and polyester filament production losses have been reduced. Up to now, the profit of polyester chip product is 70 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-170 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is-75 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber product profit is-85 yuan / ton.
The international crude oil market remains weak as the market waits for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. It is understood that OPEC+ members are talking about a reduction in production quotas, not a further reduction in actual production. And OPEC+ internal differences are still large, bringing uncertainty to the upcoming meeting, increased risk aversion in the market, costs to support the market in general. Coupled with the empty atmosphere in China's commodity market, it is expected that the PTA spot market will be weak in the near future. The polyester raw material end promotes, the polyester market offer will adjust slightly with the cost, the downstream rigid demand stock, the market production and sale is light. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
