Analysis of acetic acid and downstream
Most acetic acid is formed through methyl carbonyl compounds. In this reaction, methanol and carbon monoxide react to form acetic acid.
The total acetic acid production capacity in China is 11.65 million tons/year, China Taiwan Province 1.12 million tons/year, and the total foreign energy capacity is 688.9 years/10,000 tons. In 2023, China's new acetic acid production capacity will be put into production, including the Hualu Hengsheng (Jingzhou) 1 million tons/year project. China's acetic acid production capacity is mainly distributed in East China, followed by Northwest China, and then Central China. Most enterprises are state-owned enterprises. Source flow: In addition to local consumption, part of Shandong's source of goods is sent to East China and North China; in addition to local consumption, Henan's source of goods is sent to East China, Central China, South China and other regions; in addition to local consumption, East China's source of goods is sent to South China; in addition to local consumption, Northwest China's source of goods is sent to North China and Southwest China. In terms of exports, the main sources of goods are sources from Guangxi, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other regions.
China's acetic acid production will increase in 2023, with acetic acid starting at around 81.52% from January to October. From January to September 2023, China imported 32,827.93 tons of acetic acid and exported 5,64,860.116 tons of acetic acid. The main exporting country is India. 1-10 The average price of acetic acid in China in January is 3,236.53 yuan/ton (taking Shandong as an example), and the high price appears around late September. In Shandong, the highest price reaches 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton; the lowest price is around June, and the price is around 2710 yuan/ton.
In the post-2023 epidemic era, the market has good expectations. Acetic acid companies have actively increased their start-ups, but demand has fallen short of expectations. Since June, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and acetic acid prices have rapidly fallen to the lowest level in the year. In the second half of the year, especially in mid-September, supply declined and demand performance was stable. With the superposition of export orders, prices rose to a high level. After two quarters, Hualu Hengsheng Jingzhou's 1 million tons/year acetic acid plant was put into production, and the output continues to improve. As the market sentiment is pessimistic and the willingness to hold goods is not strong. Coupled with poor downstream profits, demand has not yet recovered, China's glacial acetic acid prices have fallen. In November, the Huayi plant in Guangxi was shut down, and the shutdown time is expected to last for about 15 days. However, the impact on North and East China will be small, and the price of acetic acid has performed steadily.
The downstream consumption of acetic acid mainly includes: PTA, vinyl acetate, ethyl acetate, chloroacetic acid, acetic anhydride, butyl acetate, sec-butyl acetate, n-propyl acetate, pma, glycine and other downstream consumption. Among them, pta consumes the largest amount of acetic acid, but has a total production capacity of 81.44 million tons/year, with an average start of around 78.5% from January to October. The total production capacity of vinyl acetate is 3.6 million tons, with an average start of 75%, and ethyl acetate is 3.68 million tons/year, with an average start of about 50%. In 2024, pta will add a total of 7 million tons of new production capacity, including 3 million tons per year for Yizheng Chemical Fiber, 1.5 million tons per year for Taihua, and 2.5 million tons per year for Shenghong. In 2024, vinyl acetate will increase its production capacity by 200,000 tons/year. Ethyl acetate increased by 200,000 - 300,000 tons/year.
