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Analysis of China's ethanol supply in September and supply forecast for October

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September 27, 2023, 5:08 PM

 

In September 2023, China's edible and industrial ethanol output was approximately 446,300 tons. Edible ethanol output increased, and coal-based ethanol output declined slightly. Fuel ethanol production increased. Fuel ethanol production in September was 363,000 tons, an increase of 48,600 tons from the previous month. Among them, corn ethanol in Northeast China started at 55.98%, and the output was 188,000 tons, an increase of 39,800 tons from the previous month. Cassava ethanol in East China started at 37.75%, and the output was around 97,000 tons, an increase of 13,750 tons from the previous month. Coal ethanol production in September was around 53,300 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous month.

Specific situation of China's ethanol production: In September, the normal production of four factories in Hongzhan, Heilongjiang Province was mainly fuel production, with limited edible output. On September 25, production reduction began to be reduced in Phase 2 of Laha and was completely shut down on the 28th; Wanli Runda's equipment was normal this month. Production was normal, but it was mainly fuel and a small amount of food was consumed; COFCO Zhaodong was producing normally, mainly fuel; the Baoquanling plant was operating normally and Youyi was shut down. Shenglong began to put into production on September 16. The unit in Fuyu Huihai continued to shut down in September. Jilin Tianyi is producing normally, with food and fuel output maintained at half. Fukang's first products in September are mainly for food production; the Dongfeng plant is shut down and Xintianlong is operating normally. Ruiyang, Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, is producing normally this month, and Zhalantun is producing normally this month. Zhongke Green produces normally. Lianhai production and Maibohui equipment in eastern and southern Jiangsu areas were shut down, Changxing officially started production in early September, after the restoration of flower halls in northern Jiangsu, production was reduced, and Longhe production was normal, Romaite production was normal, Guannan was shut down, Dongcheng was shut down, JinChanglin was shut down, Guohua was shut down, Suchun was shut down, Shandong Fulaichun was shut down, Zhenlong was shut down, Yingxuan, Zhongyu, Guan County Xinrui, Qqu wind was normal, and Jinyimeng was normal. Anhui COFCO mainly uses fuel, the Wuhechun unit is shut down, and the Wanshen unit is normal. In the first-class factory in Mengzhou, Henan Province, the three factories have stable equipment. The coal ethanol load is unstable. Fuel ethanol: In early September, SDIC Jidong plant put into production, and SDIC Hailun put into production on September 20. Liaoyuan Jufeng stopped. Fuel production in SDIC Tieling is normal. Henan Tianguan fuel production is normal. Jilin fuel production is normal.

In October, China's ethanol production and Northeast China's edible supply increased, and there is a possibility of a slight increase in fuel. Fuyu Huihai in Northeast China has a start-up plan, Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang has a start-up plan, Inner Mongolia Limiu has a start-up plan, and Inner Mongolia Shuntong has a start-up plan. SDIC Hailun will resume production on September 26, Hongzhan Laha Phase 2 has plans to resume production, Huanan may be shut down, and Liaoyuan Jufeng may be started. The installation load in East China may decline in October, and large factories will reduce production. However, ships and cargo from the port will arrive in Hong Kong to supplement the supply of East China's sources. There is a maintenance plan for coal-based ethanol in October.