Lead: After entering the third quarter, as the centralized maintenance of coking units in Chinese refineries came to an end, and the preliminary maintenance units were restarted one after another, the market started to maintain a high position, and the overall supply performance in the field was sufficient. According to incomplete statistics, it is planned to September There are no units to be overhauled in the month, and only the loads of individual units have been slightly adjusted, but the overall fluctuations are limited.
As of September 15, China's coking market has been delayed by 71.55%. As refineries that delayed the maintenance of coking units in the early stage started to resume production, the market starts have gradually increased, and the output of petroleum coke has also increased month by month. According to Tuduo data monitoring, China's petroleum coke output in August 2023 was approximately 2.6 million tons, an increase of approximately 80,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.56% month-on-month, and an increase of 3.17% year-on-year. After entering September, with the resumption of production of early equipment and the gradual reduction of maintenance equipment, the output in the Chinese market is still expected to increase. On the contrary, the increase in demand may be relatively limited.
In terms of port inventories: This year, China's port regional market inventories have always maintained a high position. In the first half of the year, supported by the better arrival and unloading of imports in Hong Kong and the high level of construction in the Chinese market, port area inventories have repeatedly hit new highs. As of September 15, the highest inventory of petroleum coke at the port appeared in July, with the highest inventory of 5.615 million tons. Recently, with the gradual improvement of downstream demand, the total inventory in the port area has also been steadily removed from the warehouse, and has now dropped to about 4.5 million tons. It is expected that the port inventory will still be steadily removed from the warehouse in the short term, but in the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the arrival of imported ships and cargo and the follow-up of downstream demand.
From the perspective of demand: After entering the third quarter, with the gradual release of downstream demand, manufacturers 'shipments have improved and market sentiment has been stimulated. At present, the starting load of electrolytic aluminum and metal silicon enterprises has continued to increase, and the aluminum carbon market has positive support and stability; entering late September, carbon companies have begun to sign a new round of purchase and sales contracts, and positive support for the terminal market still exists. However, the profit margins of intermediate carbon companies have been significantly compressed, companies have a cautious purchasing mentality in entering the market, and the overall demand side performance is average.
At present, with the reduction in the number of refining and refining units in China and the restart and stable operation of early units, the Chinese market has remained at a high level and the market supply performance has been relatively abundant. However, the overall recovery of downstream demand is limited, and some industry markets have only maintained replenishment after entering the market. Demand, in the short term, it is unlikely that the market starts will be significantly reduced, the supply side performance will remain abundant, and the downstream market demand will perform generally. It is expected that the price of China's petroleum coke market will stabilize and move significantly in the short term. Market quotes in some regions may increase within a narrow range. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the speed at which imported goods arrive and unload at Hong Kong and the follow-up of downstream demand.
