In the first half of 2023, China's petroleum coke market prices have basically remained weak. China's underground refining units have started at a high level, the arrival of imported ships and cargo to Hong Kong has maintained a steady increase, and downstream demand has not followed up well, resulting in repeated new highs in total market inventories in port areas. As of August 21, the highest level of total port inventories appeared on July 1, with the highest total inventory at 5.61 million tons. Subsequently,
Driven by improving downstream demand, the inventory in the port area has begun to show a state of de-warehousing. Currently, the arrival of imported ships and cargo in the port remains at the previous level. However, the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment into the market has increased. Supported by the improvement of port shipments, port inventories have begun to be de-stocked. The contradiction between supply and demand is slowly easing. Prices in the Chinese market have stopped falling and stabilized, and coke prices for some models have begun to increase. According to Tuduo data monitoring, as of August 21, the total inventory of petroleum coke at the port was about 4.9 million tons, a decrease of about 710,000 tons compared with the peak inventory on July 1, and a month-on-month decrease of 12.74%.
The social inventory of petroleum coke is mainly represented by port inventory. Therefore, the total inventory in the port area continues to increase, which also has a greater impact on market prices. In contrast, in the first half of 2023, the overall port inventory is on an increasing trend, resulting in the supply in the Chinese market always showing. In a sufficient state, especially after mid-March, the total inventory of China's petroleum coke ports has begun to accumulate significantly. The price of the Chinese market has been weakened and the price of imported coke has no obvious advantage. In addition, some traders have a certain reluctance to sell, port petroleum coke shipments are under pressure, and limited follow-up of terminal downstream market demand have led to a continuous increase in port inventories.
After entering the second half of the year, downstream market demand began to increase. Although the arrival of imported ships and cargo to the port did not change much compared with the previous period, driven by improving downstream demand, petroleum coke port inventories began to steadily decrease. After entering late June, with the arrival of the flood season in the south, the construction of electrolytic aluminum and metal silicon enterprises in the southwest has gradually increased, which has provided positive support and stability for the aluminum carbon market, and has driven petroleum coke manufacturers to ship to a certain extent. In the situation of weak overall demand, the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum has brought certain positive support to the petroleum coke market. The construction of the anode material market has steadily increased, and market demand has gradually increased. With the release of some new devices, There is certain support for shipments by manufacturers in some regions. The trading atmosphere in the demand-side market is good, and the enthusiasm of downstream companies to enter the market has increased.
At present, the negative electrode material market is expected to slowly increase due to macro policies to boost demand. Demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable. Inventory in the port market is gradually being removed. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is gradually easing. Most manufacturers are under inventory pressure, and the sentiment of operators in the market is improving. Overall, it is expected that the short-term petroleum coke market price will adjust within a narrow range, and the price of some models of coke may still increase. Ports will continue to move mainly slightly, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil in the later period. Operation status of Chinese plants and follow-up status of downstream demand.
