Introduction: the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou is the third time that China has hosted the highest-standard international comprehensive sports event in Asia after the 1990 Beijing Asian Games and the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games. On July 19, 2022, the Olympic Council of Asia announced that the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou, originally scheduled for September 10-25, 2022, will be held from September 23 to October 8, 2023, with the event name and logo unchanged.
Since late August, China's polyester market has been in a high and strong trend. Speculators increased their net long holdings in European and American crude oil futures and options last week after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended a period of supply cuts. Tight supply continued to provide positive support, with better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, a superimposed red in global stock markets and new highs for the year in international oil prices. The strong boost of the international crude oil market has led to market sentiment, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market have pulled up, driven by the cost end, polyester manufacturers offer continued to rise, the focus of market negotiations increased.
Polyester raw materials industry supply is shrinking, forming a certain support for the market. Recently, the supply in China's PTA market has shrunk and the overhaul of enterprise devices has increased. Jiatong Energy's 2.5 million-ton PTA plant fell to 50% last weekend for a period of 3-5 days. The maintenance of the 2.5 million-ton PTA plant in Honggang Sinopec began about a week on September 11th. Coupled with the temporary stoppage of the PTA plant in Yisheng Hainan and Ningbo and the parking of a 900000-ton PTA device in the southwest, the load of Chinese PTA enterprises has been reduced to less than 80%. Recently, the shipments of ethylene glycol at the main port of East China have improved, and the main port of East China has continued to go to the warehouse in stages, forming a support for the market.
Although the supply of polyester raw materials is tightened, downstream polyester demand is expected to be reduced. From mid-late September to October, during the Asian Games, some polyester plants in the areas around Hangzhou, Zhejiang will face a reduction in production. At present, the polyester production capacity is about 3.1 million tons, accounting for 3.9% of the total polyester production capacity. At present, the starting load of polyester in China is still maintained at a high level of 90%. With the increase of polyester production reduction units in Zhejiang, the polyester load will gradually decrease and the market supply will decrease.
Since the beginning of September, the trading atmosphere of the terminal textile market has become more and more active, market orders have rebounded, orders for terminal weaving cold-proof and warm fabrics in winter have been gradually issued, and the delivery situation of grey fabric market has improved moderately. The inventory of grey cloth factory decreased gradually, and the start-up load of weaving enterprises maintained a continuous upward trend since the middle of August. Although the terminal textile market has entered the peak demand season of the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten", due to the impact of the Asian Games, the load of some weaving factories will be affected, coupled with the impact of logistics and transport control, the sustainability of the market still needs to be further followed up.
Recently, the good international crude oil market still has the upper hand, and the fundamental support is strong. At present, we need to focus on the need to guard against the risk of falling after days of high oil prices. The market maintains a long-short game posture. In the short term, the high probability of international crude oil will still be a high shock. Cost to promote the formation of the market, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market supply and demand side weakening, it is expected that the short-term market will maintain high volatility, polyester cost support, polyester market offer will be slightly adjusted with raw materials, downstream buying caution, maintain rigid demand for stock. Short-term polyester market prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of the raw material market and the supply and demand of polyester itself.
