Polyester: The contradiction between low efficiency and high start

Introduction: since the second half of the year, under the pressure of high cost, the trend of China's polyester market continues to be weak, and the market passively follows the raw material market, so the production of polyester enterprises is mired in a quagmire of losses. however, the start-up load of polyester enterprises has been at a high level of more than 90%.

Since July, polyester raw material PTA futures market has risen sharply. As of July 31, the main PTA contract rose as high as 6148 yuan, a new high in nearly three months. The spot market of PTA rose as high as 6040 yuan / ton, up 8.05% in a single month. The spot market for ethylene glycol, another raw material for polyester, also showed a volatile rise. Throughout July, the spot market for ethylene glycol rose as high as 4130 yuan / ton, up 255yuan / ton in a single month, or 6.58%.

As the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market prices continue to rise, polyester production cost pressure continues to increase, while the polyester market is dragged down by weak demand, market pull resistance is greater, polyester market increases are less than raw material market increases, so the overall profitability of Chinese polyester enterprises continues to decline, most products begin to fall into the plight of losses. Since the beginning of July, the production of polyester bottle chips and polyester filament enterprises began to fall into a state of loss, and in the middle of the year, polyester staple fiber production also began to lose money, and the profit of polyester chips fell straight back to the profit-loss line at the end of the month.

After August, with the concussion of polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market, the production cost pressure of polyester enterprises has been reduced. Although the polyester product market is also adjusted with the raw materials, the overall decline is relatively small, so the profits of polyester enterprises begin to improve. The production profits of polyester chips and polyester enterprises rebounded, while the production of polyester bottle chips remained at a small loss. So far, the profit of polyester chip product is 167 yuan / ton, polyester bottle chip product profit is-43 yuan / ton, polyester filament product profit is 107 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber product profit is 192 yuan / ton.

Although the production of polyester enterprises fell into a small loss, the start-up load of Chinese polyester enterprises remained at a high level of more than 90%, much higher than the level of the same period in previous years. Although some polyester plants are affected by the Asian Games to reduce production or stop, but the overall polyester load drop space is small. The main reason why the production of polyester enterprises has always maintained a high load is that the inventory pressure of the enterprises is relatively small. While the market fluctuates frequently, the production and marketing of polyester enterprises are improved through price reduction and promotion. Therefore, the inventory of polyester enterprises has been maintained at a reasonable and controllable level. By the end of last week, polyester POY factory warehouse existed for 12-14 days, FDY factory warehouse for 18-20 days, DTY inventory for 23-25 days, and polyester staple factory inventory for 7-9 days. In the absence of greater sales pressure, polyester enterprises are more active in production.

Although the start-up of the terminal weaving industry declined slightly due to the deep influence of the high temperature and off-season atmosphere in summer, the start-up burden of weaving enterprises was relatively small, and the autumn and winter orders of some enterprises began to start, so the terminal load will be maintained. Among them, the comprehensive start-up of weaving is still maintained at about 70%, the start-up of texturing enterprises is around 75%, and the start-up of printing and dyeing enterprises is also maintained at about 75%. Terminal weaving maintains a high level of start-up, and the load of polyester enterprises remains high under the support of the demand end.

International crude oil high and strong, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol market cost end support is still in, the short-term market will maintain a narrow adjustment, under cost pressure, short-term polyester enterprise profits will maintain low fluctuations, but with the terminal demand traditional peak season is approaching, the demand is expected, polyester enterprise load will still be maintained at a high level. Pay close attention to the changes of raw material market and demand side in the later stage.