The main raw material for ethanol is corn. The main producing areas of corn are concentrated in Northeast China and Central China. Another main raw material for ethanol is dried cassava. The main source of dried cassava is imported from Thailand.
Raw materials: Corn: Grain sources in Northeast China continue to decrease, and the market is slow. Supported by acquisitions from multiple directly affiliated warehouses in Jilin and the phased growth in demand for high-quality corn, corn prices in the producing areas have been stable and strongly fluctuated. At the same time, there is not much surplus grain left in the Northeast and North China production areas. The surplus grain of grassroots traders has basically bottomed out, and the inventory is lower than the level of the same period last year. The combined purchase costs of traders are higher than the current shipping costs. Traders have a strong attitude towards supporting prices, which has a bottom-up effect on the market. Relevant data shows that the total corn stocks of processing enterprises across the country are 2.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.42 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1.54 million tons. Stocks of deeply processed corn have dropped significantly, with most companies holding corn stocks of less than a month. In the short term, deep-processing inventories are low. Before the new grain market, the gap is still large, and the purchasing demand of deep-processing enterprises is still large. The international Black Sea agreement will shift and Russia will launch an agreement that means it will be difficult for grain exports from Ukraine or other imports to be terminated. However, in the first half of 2023, China has opened up new countries to import corn, and imported corn from countries such as Brazil and South Africa have also successively arrived in Hong Kong. The price of forward landed corn in September was not high, which had a certain negative impact on China's forward corn to a certain extent.
The weak price of dried cassava in Thailand has currently reached a fob of US$255/ton. Chinese traditional ethanol has begun to increase inquiries, causing an increase in market demand in Thailand. The rise in Chinese ethanol prices has also brought confidence to Thai raw materials. In the short term, the price of dried cassava remains within a narrow range, with little room for downside.
Recently, the price of ethanol in China has risen: the general grade of corn ethanol in Jilin region in Northeast China is 6,300 - 6,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the same period last week; the general grade of corn ethanol in Heilongjiang region in Northeast China is 6,150 - 6,250 yuan/ton, stable compared with the same period last week; The excellent grade of corn ethanol in Central China and Henan region is 6,500 - 6,500 yuan/ton, up 160--170 yuan/ton from the same period last week; The general grade of cassava ethanol in East China and northern Jiangsu is 6500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the same period last week.
