Analysis of soda ash market
Today, soda ash market prices in China dropped within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton. Some alkali plant units have been put into operation, and the overall start-up has increased slightly; the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the transaction frequency has slowed down slightly. The quotations for new orders of some companies have been lowered, and the market fundamentals are still weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 20, was 1475 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1465 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.27% within the day. The intraday high was 1479 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1454 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1178904 lots, a month-on-month increase of 29711 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices are weak and mainly volatile.At present, China's macro sentiment has warmed up amid various news disturbances, and as the strength of the US dollar index slows down, overseas pressure has simultaneously eased, the overall China market seems to be stabilizing in stages and waiting for the arrival of a new policy window. However, in view of the fact that the fundamentals of soda ash itself have no positive logical support, the upward negative feedback transmission of the entire industrial chain has relatively great pressure on prices, and the short-term market may remain weak as the market environment fluctuates and waits for new drivers to emerge.
market outlook
Enterprises that reduced their production in the early stage will gradually resume operations, and the market supply will consolidate at a high level; the current soda ash price is low, and the downstream may have certain intentions to stock up, but the actual procurement intensity remains to be seen; it is expected that the soda ash market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, with limited price fluctuations.
