Analysis of PVC futures: On November 20, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5300, the highest price: 5300, the lowest price: 5247, the position: 942391, the settlement price: 5272, yesterday's settlement: 5276, down 4, the daily trading volume: 836028 lots, the deposited capital: 3.484 billion, and the capital inflow: 35.58 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China continued to adjust slightly, while transactions in the spot market remained. Comparison of valuations: Among them, the low-end of North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, the East China region was stable, the low-end of South China region rose by 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast region was stable, the Central China region was stable, and the Southwest region was stable. The quotations of upstream PVC production companies have remained basically stable, and there has been no obvious adjustment in ex-factory prices. However, it is difficult to see large orders in the current generation of contracts. Futures lows continue to be consolidated in a narrow range. Bug-and-spot prices coexist in the spot market, and the basis is slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis for East China offer 01 contract-(80-180), South China 01 contract-(0-80), Northern China 01 contract-(380-400-480), Southwest China 01 contract-(610), and some source 01 contract-(200). Although the two quotation methods coexist, the on-site transactions have always been poor. There are still small discussions on the actual orders. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is average. The overall transaction is flat, and the actual orders are concentrated in the low-price range.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract fell at the opening, and the night price fell significantly, with the low point slightly lower than the previous low in the week. Prices rose slightly in early trading and later periods, while prices in the afternoon futures showed a V-shaped trend, falling first and then rising. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,247 to 5,300, with a spread of 53. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 11385 lots. As of now, 942391 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5597 lots, with 169065 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures are ups and downs from the single-day trend range. In fact, the fluctuation range is only 53 points, showing a small increase in positions on the market. The all-day futures closed at the long negative column of the lower shadow line, and the technical closing line did not show obvious changes. Technical aspects show that the opening of the third track of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) is still turning downward, and the lower track continues to move lower. The daily KD line and MACD line continue to show a dead fork trend, while the small increase in positions is also dominated by empty opening. Among them, transactions were open by 25.8% compared with 23.6% more. Judging from the current operating trend of futures prices, in the short term, it will still or continue to be concentrated in a narrow range. We maintain our previous view and observe fluctuations in the low range of 5230-5350.
In terms of spot: At present, both markets lack certain activity. First, the total number of transactions on the futures market continues to be below one million, and there is insufficient participation in both long and short positions in the market. Secondly, in the spot market, whether it is production companies or middlemen, there are few large orders, and most of them are small orders. It is difficult to produce good transactions in the current weak atmosphere. When trading feedback is always flat, it is difficult for production companies and middlemen to sign large orders. On the other hand, when there is no shortage of goods, most of the downstream are just waiting orders at low points. On the external market, oil prices rose slightly and continued to be supported by tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the partial resumption of production in the Johan Sverdrup oil field in Norway suppressed the rise in oil prices. Overall, in the short term, there is insufficient guidance from policies and news. Relying on its own fundamentals, the fluctuations in the two markets are relatively narrow, and the PVC spot market is mainly consolidated in a small manner.
