< img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=2433975083660159&ev=PageView&noscript=1" />

Phosphate fertilizer daily review: Strong upward support from cost increases and stable phosphate fertilizer prices (November 15)

736
November 20, 2024, 4:00 PM

Monoammonium phosphate price index:

According to Feiduo data, on November 15, the 55% powder index of China's monoammonium phosphate was 3,168.75, stable; the 55% particle index was 3,250.00, stable; and the 58% powder index was 3,450.00, stable.

image.png

Monoammonium phosphate market analysis and forecast:

Today, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China is firm and stable. On the enterprise side, the costs of production enterprises continue to increase. According to the current cost situation, the current cost is already in a loss state, and the enterprise still needs to be supported for a short time, so it intends to increase the price, which increases the possibility of one after another. In terms of the market, the market is in a stalemate, costs continue to rise, downstream follow-up mentality is cautious, companies have difficulty adjusting prices, and price increases still need to pay attention to downstream demand follow-up. On the demand side, the purchasing mentality of downstream compound fertilizer raw materials still tends to be cautious, with limited demand follow-up, and a small amount of purchases that are just needed is maintained. The actual transaction volume of new orders is insufficient, and the market is weak and stable. In terms of raw materials, the market prices of raw materials sulfur and phosphate rock continue to rise sharply, and the upward trend still exists in the short term; the synthetic ammonia market has risen in the north and fallen in the south, and the market has developed regionally. The overall cost has risen sharply, and cost support has increased significantly. On the whole, the current upstream and downstream ammonium market is showing significantly differentiated operations. Cost and price have boosted the upward exploration of ammonium, while demand is weak. It is expected that the market price of monoammonium phosphate will be stable and slightly improved in a short period of time.

Specific market prices in each region are as follows:

image.png

Diammonium phosphate price index:

According to Feiduo data, on November 15, the mainstream 64% particle index of diammonium phosphate in China was 3,826.67, rising; the 60% brown index was 3,450.00, stable; and the 57% content index was 3,420.00, stable.

image.png

Diammonium phosphate market analysis and forecast:

Today, the market price of diammonium phosphate in China is stable and moderate. On the enterprise side, cost support is strong, and the enterprise's production profits are close to a loss. However, downstream follow-up is generally normal. Currently, the enterprise's ex-factory price is temporarily stable, and actual order negotiations are the main focus. In terms of the market, the market is operating steadily, the overall wait-and-see attitude of the industry remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere on the floor is relatively light, and transactions are limited. On the demand side, the winter storage market is slowly advancing to purchase more on demand in the middle and lower reaches. Subsequent winter reserves are still expected to be just needed. Traders are not enthusiastic about preparing for fertilizer. There is a stalemate between upstream and downstream, and the overall wait-and-see attitude of the industry remains unchanged. In terms of raw materials, the market prices of raw materials sulfur and phosphate rock are firm and rising, the market price of synthetic ammonia is pushing up in the north, and demand in the southern region is still weak. Overall raw material prices continue to rise, and cost support continues to increase. On the whole, the current diammonium market still has expectations of just need in the future, coupled with strong cost support, it is expected that the market price of diammonium phosphate will remain stable in a short period of time, and the market will continue to be stable.

Specific market prices in each region are as follows:

image.png


Yellow phosphorus market information:

At present, the price of yellow phosphorus is still maintaining a slow decline, and the rate of decline is not as fast as expected. Sales of yellow phosphorus are now stable, and downstream yellow phosphorus stocks are low. Most downstream companies believe that there is still room for reduction in the price of yellow phosphorus, so they mainly focus on just needed and pick it up as you want. Some enterprises in Yunnan have said that costs have been reversed (the actual situation has yet to be confirmed), but the current operating rate of yellow phosphorus is on the high side. The current national operating production capacity of yellow phosphorus is about 1.01 million tons, much higher than the 750,000 tons in the same period last year. In the future, yellow phosphorus will still need to be removed before the market is expected to improve.

Market prices by region are as follows:

Currently, Yunnan and Sichuan are accepted at 23200 yuan/ton (Nanphosphorus has a price of 23000 yuan/ton, but the delivery date is next week, which is risky), and Guizhou is accepted at 23300- 23,400 yuan/ton.

In addition, Wengfu wet-process phosphoric acid maintained its original price and delivered it to Jiangsu at 6,850 - 6,900 yuan/ton. Now the ex-factory price of hot-process phosphoric acid is also at 6,850 - 6,900 yuan/ton.