Analysis of PVC futures: On November 19, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5280, the highest price: 5304, the lowest price: 5252, the position: 931006, the settlement price: 5276, yesterday's settlement: 5283, down 7, daily trading volume: 768880 lots, deposited funds: 3.449 billion, and capital inflow: 24.97 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the PVC market in China was slightly adjusted, and some actual orders were sold at a profit. Comparison of valuation: Among them, the high-end of North China increased by 20 yuan/ton, the low-end of East China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the low-end of South China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast region dropped by 10-30 yuan/ton, and the Central China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, stable in Southwest China. Most of the quotations from upstream PVC production companies remained stable, with some companies making up a drop of 50 yuan/ton, including the quotations from off-site warehouses in the northwest. At present, the ex-factory price is basically at the low price at the end of the year, but there is no increase in contract signing. Futures were consolidated in a narrow range at low levels, and spot market offers remained weak. Merchants adjusted their quotations slightly flexibly based on shipments. Moreover, high prices were difficult to trade, and real orders were mainly given small profits. The basis difference has not changed much. Among them, the basis offer for East China is 01 contract-(70-150-200), South China is 01 contract-(0-90), Northern China is 01 contract-(360-400), Southwest China is 01 contract-(610), and some goods is 01 contract-(200). Overall, today's spot market lacks movement and the feedback is relatively calm.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract fell at the opening, but then rose to recover. After the early trading turmoil, it went downward again, with the low point approaching yesterday's running low, and the afternoon futures price rising slightly. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,252 to 5,304, with a spread of 52. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 5342 lots. As of now, 931006 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5616, with 160025 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The operation of PVC2501 contract futures maintained a low and narrow range. First, the fluctuation range of the futures price was the same as yesterday. Secondly, the low point was almost the same as yesterday. Today's market showed a slight increase in positions. From the perspective of transactions, it was open by 24.0% and more than open by 23.5%. The overall trading volume of the market has decreased, and the corresponding on-site activity has also decreased. The technical closing line is still slightly empty. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has turned downward significantly. At present, there is insufficient support from the policy and news levels, so the fluctuations in futures prices lack certain positive guidance. In the short term, it may still be difficult for futures prices to get rid of the low situation, and continue to observe the fluctuations in the low range of 5230-5350.
In terms of spot: First of all, looking at the current spot market from an emotional perspective, demand is weakening, and high inventories have always been a constraint on the prices of the two markets. The ex-factory quotations of production companies have also returned to low levels at the end of the year. Intermediaries basically cooperate with the market to carry out hedging transactions. After removing policy and news factors from the trend of the two markets, the fundamentals of PVC have gradually entered the winter market with obvious off-season characteristics. Coupled with the recent poor performance of overall commodities, Most commodities also have weakened performance, so the PVC spot market operation is also relatively vigorous. On the external side, oil prices rose more than 3% on news that the war between Russia and Ukraine had escalated and crude oil production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup field had stopped. Overall, there is relatively lack of news in the spot market at present. Based solely on the lack of trends generated by PVC fundamentals, the PVC spot market continues to be mainly organized in a low and narrow range.
