Analysis of caustic soda futures: On November 19, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2574, the highest price: 2585, the lowest price: 2530, the position: 58521, the settlement price: 2552, yesterday's settlement: 2606, down: 54, the closing price: 2571, the daily trading volume: 128639 lots, the deposited capital: 722 million, and the capital inflow: 6.17 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, the trend of China's caustic soda market is stable and moving slightly. Prices in some areas of the liquid caustic soda market have fallen slightly, and the flake caustic soda market continues to show a weak situation. The market trading atmosphere is average, and most operators are relatively cautious, and most of them focus on wait-and-see the market. Judging from the price adjustment of various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane alkali individually fell by 32 yuan/ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali individually fell by 10 yuan/ton, and 99% of the factory quotations of sheet alkali were quoted by most manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet new prices., a few manufacturers lowered their prices, and local market price ranges moved down; the price ranges of alkali at other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, the liquid soda market trend is stable and declining. Prices in some regions have experienced a slight decline. Most markets have performed relatively stable, and prices have temporarily stabilized. Affected by the decline in local flake soda prices in the northwest region, and the slightly average shipment of local companies, the liquid soda market showed a downward trend; prices in some areas of the main producing areas were boosted by local equipment maintenance plans, and prices increased slightly, but the overall price range There was no significant change; the prices of some high-concentration alkalis were slightly lowered. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in most other regions, and no local variables have appeared that clearly guide the direction of the market. The market transaction atmosphere has mostly maintained its previous level, and the price range has temporarily shown a stable trend. Most operators have mainly waited and watched the market. Some manufacturers of upstream production enterprises in Shandong have adjusted their quotations, but there are differences in the direction of price adjustment, with the adjustment range ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton; individual ex-factory quotations in East China have increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotations of manufacturers in most other regions have not yet been significantly adjusted, and manufacturers are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, a few manufacturers in the northwest region of the soda market lowered their ex-factory quotations, and most manufacturers have not yet made new prices. The operators have a cautious mentality and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. Most of the units are operating stably, some units are under maintenance, and the downstream non-aluminum industry has a general receiving situation. Companies are not enthusiastic about entering the market and operating, and the market trading atmosphere is weak.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 fluctuated slightly after going downward. The opening price of the night session rose slightly to the high point of the day, and then plunged, and then fluctuated. The morning session price fluctuated downward to a low point, and the lower abdomen rebounded and fluctuated. In the afternoon, the market rose slightly again. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2,530 to 2,585, with a spread of 55.01 contracts adding 926 lots, and so far, 58521 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on November 19 was 3297.83, down 6.38, or 0.193%. China's caustic soda index fell.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:Various regions of the liquid soda market are organized and operated. Most regional markets lack obvious variable stimulus factors, and it is difficult to have major fluctuations in the short term. Most of the units on the supply side are operating stably. In addition, some maintenance units in the early stage have recently resumed operation. The supply has recovered, and there is no obvious support for the market. There is little inventory pressure on some enterprises. There has been little change in the start-up of downstream industries, and most of them have just needed procurement, and the overall enthusiasm for receiving goods is average. At present, the variables between supply and demand sides are not enough to guide the direction of prices. It is expected that the short-term liquid soda market may continue to operate with small regional adjustments. The overall trend of the caustic soda market showed weak fluctuations. This week, a few manufacturers in the northwest region announced a downward revision of the factory quotations, and most of them have not yet announced new prices. The actual market transaction price is lower than the factory quotation. The industry is not enthusiastic to operate truthfully, and the market transaction situation is not good. At present, the price of caustic soda is still showing a downward trend.
Futures:The futures price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, gapped and opened lower. The futures price hit a low of 2530 in the past month. The market increased slightly, and the short positions were active. As of the afternoon's close trading situation: 16.1% more than 22.6%, and 23% less than 18.2%. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) is turning downward, and the daily KD line and MACD line are both showing a dead fork trend and expanding. The intraday price low fell below the downward trajectory. With the Wenhua Commodity Index rising today and most commodities recovering, the caustic soda market emerged from an obviously weak downward trend, with a intraday decline of more than 1%, leading the decline in the chemical sector. At present, there is no obvious guidance on the market in many aspects such as fundamentals and policies. The short-term caustic soda market focuses on the lower track support level.
List of caustic soda positions:
