On November 18, the methanol market price index was 2,092.33, an increase of 23.18 from the previous working day and an increase of 1.12% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 15:
China CFR 293-294/ton, up 4/ton;
US FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 392-393 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2495 (0), Zhejiang: 2540-2550 (0), Anhui: 2420-2430 (0)
South China: Guangdong: 2480-2500 (10), Fujian: 2500-2550 (0)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2310 (0), North Shandong: 2270-2310 (10), Linyi: 2350 (5)
North China: Shanxi: 2075-2220 (0), Hebei: 2190-2240 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2255-2285 (5), Two Lakes: 2330-2500 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2130-2160 (30), Northern Shaanxi: 2020 (35), Inner Mongolia North Line: 2020 (50), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2020 (20), Xinjiang: 1660-1725 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2380 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2210-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, methanol futures were consolidated at a high level, futures were volatile upward, and spot prices were raised. With the smooth shipment of the market in the early stage, there is currently little inventory pressure on manufacturers in various regions, which supports manufacturers 'quotations to remain high to a certain extent. However, downstream market demand Follow-up is limited, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the regional market is general. At present, the market prices in the main producing areas have increased within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 2020 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and 2020 yuan/ton for the southern line. Shaanxi Runzhong (Changwu) This week The second quotation was raised by 20 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton; Rongxin's starting price for methanol today was quoted at 1980 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 6000 tons, and all 2000 yuan/ton were finally sold; Yulin Yankuang reported the starting price of methanol this week at 1990 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 3000 tons. In the end, all transactions were sold at 2020 yuan/ton. At present, the overall supply pressure in the regional market is not large, which provides certain support for the mentality of the operators, and transactions in the downstream market remain in demand. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,270 -2310 yuan/ton in northern Shandong, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton at the low-end. Currently, the raw material inventories of some downstream operators maintain a high position, and the market transaction atmosphere has slowed down. The market quotations in North China are arranged at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,190 - 2,240 yuan/ton, maintaining the previous working day. At the beginning of the week, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and most downstream manufacturers hold the mentality of just purchasing; today's quotation in Shanxi is 2,075 - 2,220 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. At present, the overall supply in the region is not large, and the inventory of most manufacturers remains low. Supported by good supply, some manufacturers have a certain sentiment of supporting prices.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures consolidated after rising. Spot goods just needed to be negotiated; unilateral shipments of paper goods were active on rallies, arbitrage and buying increased, and the basis was slightly stronger. Monthly exchanges continue, and the transaction is okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: spot/11 middle: 2480-2505, basis 01-25/-22; transaction under 11:2500-2520, basis 01-12/-8; transaction under 12 middle: 2530, basis 01+12; transaction under 12:2540-2550, basis 01+21/+24.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the market quotations in China's main producing areas have remained high supported by low inventory pressure, and the main methanol contract price fluctuated at a high level, which to a certain extent supports the mentality of the operators in the market to improve. Currently, some installations in the Iranian regional market have limited gas impact on the start of construction, and the supply in the international market may decrease. This has also affected the arrival of Chinese methanol imported cargo to Hong Kong to a certain extent. In the later period, with the decrease in imports and the stable consumption of downstream demand, It is expected that the port market will be stocked or removed in the later period. At present, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers in the China market is not large, and some manufacturers have obvious signs of supporting prices. However, the follow-up of downstream market demand is limited, which has suppressed the price increase in the spot market to a certain extent. It is expected that prices in the short term in China market may continue to fluctuate in the range. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand follow-up.
