On November 13, the methanol market price index was 2,067.68, an increase of 0.7 from yesterday and an increase of 0.03% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 12:
China CFR 287-292 US $/ton, down US $4/ton;
US FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 392-393 euros/ton, down 6 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2475-2480 (10), Zhejiang: 2530-2540 (0), Anhui: 2410-2420 (10)
South China: Guangdong: 2450-2465 (10), Fujian: 2480-2535 (5)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2310 (0), North Shandong: 2230-2250 (0), Linyi: 2340-2350 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2075-2220 (0), Hebei: 2190-2220 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2245-2265 (5), Two Lakes: 2330-2510 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2100-2130 (20), Northern Shaanxi: 1985-2000 (5), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1970-1990 (0), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2000 (0), Xinjiang: 1660-1800 (-40)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2380 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2210-2480 (10)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the price of methanol in the market increased within a narrow range, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and the spot quotation price adjusted within a narrow range. As manufacturers 'early shipments improve, manufacturers are currently holding a certain price support supported by low supply pressure, but limited follow-up of downstream market demand has suppressed the increase in spot market prices to a certain extent. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 1970- 1,990 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton. Among them, Rongxin's starting price for methanol today is quoted as 1970 yuan/ton. The quantity is 5000 tons. Finally, all 1970- 1,975 yuan/ton were sold. Northwest Energy today quoted the starting price of methanol as 1990 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, and all 2000 tons of methanol were sold. The starting price of methanol in Yulin Yankuang was quoted as 1980 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 5000 tons. In the end, all 2000 yuan/ton were sold. At present, the overall supply pressure in the regional market is not large, which provides certain support for the mentality of the operators, and transactions in the downstream market remain in demand. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,230 - 2,250 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Currently, the raw material inventories of some downstream players remain at a high level, and the market transaction atmosphere has slowed down. The market quotation in North China is being consolidated at a high level. Today, Hebei's quotation is 2,190 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Maintaining the previous working day, the raw material inventories of some downstream manufacturers in the region have yet to be consumed, and the overall market trading atmosphere is stable; Today's quotation in Shanxi is 2,075 - 2,220 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. Although downstream manufacturers still hold the mentality of just entering the market and there is no significant change in the demand side, the overall supply in the region is currently not large, and the inventory of most manufacturers remains low. Supported by good supply, some manufacturers have a certain sentiment of supporting prices.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures rose. The stock just needs to be negotiated. Paper goods were mainly shipped on rallies, buying was cautious, and the basis weakened; unilateral low-price inquiries increased in the afternoon, and the basis continued to be weak. The deal was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2475-2480, basis 01-18; transaction in 11:2480-2485, basis 01-15/-13; transaction under 11:2485-2500, basis 01-2/+0; transaction under 12:2520-2525, basis 01+27/+31.
Market outlook forecast:The current futures market is fluctuating upwards, which supports a certain extent to improve the mentality of players in the market. However, the supply and demand pattern of the methanol market in China has not changed much, and the demand in the downstream market has recovered slowly. In addition, some downstream stocks still have to be consumed. It is difficult to improve demand in the short term. It is expected that the Chinese market may still maintain a situation of oversupply in the short term. At present, downstream demand is unlikely to improve significantly. Some downstream banks have operated to hold down prices to a certain extent, and the short-term methanol market price range is expected to fluctuate.
