Analysis of PVC futures: On November 13, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5350, the highest price: 5380, the lowest price: 5335, the position: 936532, the settlement price: 5355, yesterday's settlement: 5335, up 20, the daily trading volume: 682142 lots, the deposited capital: 3.505 billion, and the capital outflow: 27.57 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China continued to maintain, with sporadic minor adjustments in individual spot markets. Comparison of valuation: Among them, the high-end increase in North China is 20 yuan/ton, the high-end increase in East China is 30 yuan/ton, and the high-end increase in South China is 20-30 yuan/ton. The Northeast is stable, the Central China is down by 20 yuan/ton, and the Southwest is stable. There has been no obvious adjustment in the quotations of upstream PVC production companies, and most of them have stable and positive quotations. Although the prices have remained at the previous stage, there has been no significant volume of transactions. The futures market continued to be organized in a narrow range, but the lows increased. The spot market prices remained at the previous stage. In view of the trend of the futures market, merchants in some regions raised their prices slightly, but the actual transactions were still mainly negotiated, and price adjustments were not common. The basis adjustment is not large, including the basis offer for East China contract 01-(150-180), South China contract 01-(0-80), northern region 01-(360-400), southwest region 01-(620), and some source 01-(200). Overall, the enthusiasm for downstream purchasing in the spot market today is low, and the overall transaction is weak.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, with the fluctuation range of the futures price being small. Prices rose slightly in early trading and later periods, and also reached a certain small height in the afternoon, but fell slightly in late trading. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,335 to 5,380, with a spread of 45. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 6837 lots. As of now, 936532 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5677 lots, with 146976 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: Volatility of PVC2501 contract futures continues to be low and sideways. First, the fluctuation direction of futures prices is relatively narrow. Secondly, the slight reduction of positions lacks clear trends in terms of long and short positions. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) is turning downward, and the daily MACD line continues to show a dead fork trend. The low sideways trend makes the KD line anxious, basically in a state where the two lines cross. At the close of noon, China's main futures contracts were mixed, with lithium carbonate rising more than 6%, and soda ash, consolidated shipping index (European line) and glass rising more than 2%. In terms of decline, soybean oil fell more than 5%, Shanghai tin and palm oil fell more than 4%, and vegetable oil fell nearly 4%. However, the trend of PVC-related products is insufficient, and fluctuations in futures prices in the short term continue to observe the range of 5,280 - 5,400 between the middle and lower rails.
In terms of spot: The price fluctuations in the spot market were relatively small. Based on the small increase in futures prices, some merchants in the spot market rose slightly, but the actual transaction did not change significantly. The current policy port and message port are not sufficiently stimulated, and the current fundamental factor variables also lack direction, so prices will enter a sideways state correspondingly after going downward. At the supply level, the current quotations of production companies have returned to low levels, but it has not affected the start-up load of PVC plants to remain high. There are fewer plant repairs in the later period, so supply still puts pressure on fundamentals. The demand side has entered a low season of enthusiasm, and there are certain expectations of weakening demand. Although there are short-term peak seasons in the overall Gold Nine and Silver Ten Middle School, it cannot affect the weak supply and demand pattern overall. Therefore, overall, the short-term trend of PVC may continue to be low and narrow.
