On November 12, the methanol market price index was 2,069.29, an increase of 13.43 from yesterday and an increase of 0.65% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 11:
China CFR 293-295/ton, down 3/ton;
US FOB 117-118 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 398-399 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 5 - 5 (10), Zhejiang: 0 - 0 (10), Anhui: 0 - 0 (0,
South China: Guangdong: 2440-2455 (0), Fujian: 2475-2525 (5)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2300-2310 (0), North Shandong: 2240-2260 (0), Linyi: 2340 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2075-2200 (-10), Hebei: 2190-2220 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2240-2270 (20), Two Lakes: 2330-2510 (30)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2080-2130 (0), Northern Shaanxi: 1980 (0), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1970-1990 (20), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2000 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2200-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the methanol market price range fluctuated, and the futures market was weak, which was negative to a certain extent. At present, weak downstream demand is still the main factor affecting methanol prices. Downstream transactions continue to be dominated by demand, and the atmosphere for new orders in the market is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotations for the northern line are around 1,970 - 1,990 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton. The futures market is weak and volatile. Operators hold a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook. Downstream terminals and traders are mainly in need of entering the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the region is limited. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2300 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The futures market fluctuated downward, and the mentality of players in the market was poor and their enthusiasm for replenishing goods was poor, and they were mainly in need. The market quotations in North China have been consolidated at a high level. Today, Hebei quoted 2,190 - 2,220 yuan/ton, maintaining the previous working day. With the smooth shipments of enterprises in the early stage, the mentality of manufacturers with low warehouse support prices has not diminished, but the downstream follow-up has not diminished, and the market transaction atmosphere is light; Shanxi quoted 2,075 - 2,200 yuan/ton today. At present, the overall supply in the region is not large, and the inventories of most manufacturers remain low. Supported by good supply, some manufacturers have a certain mood to support prices.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures are consolidating. On-the-spot negotiations are limited. Paper goods arbitrage and exchange shipments are mainly shipped, with positive offers, and some unilateral offers receive goods on bargain hunting, resulting in a weakening of the basis; exchange continues. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2465-2470, basis 01-18/-16; transaction in 11:2470-2475, basis 01-10/-5; transaction in 11:2475-2490, basis 01+2/+5; transaction in 12:2505-2520, basis 01+31/+35.
| areas | 2024/11/12 | 2024/11/11 | rise and fall | remarks |
| National | 2069.29 | 2055.86 | 13.43 | |
| Northwest | 1970-2130 | 1950-2130 | 20/0 | Yuan/ton |
| North China | 2075-2220 | 2085-2220 | -10/0 | Yuan/ton |
| East China | 2465-2540 | 2455-2530 | 10/10 | Yuan/ton |
| South China | 2440-2525 | 2440-2520 | 0/5 | Yuan/ton |
| Southwest | 2150-2480 | 2150-2480 | 0/0 | Yuan/ton |
| northeast | 2330-2550 | 2330-2550 | 0/0 | Yuan/ton |
| Shandong | 2240-2350 | 2260-2350 | 0/0 | Yuan/ton |
| Huazhong | 2240-2510 | 2220-2460 | 20/50 | Yuan/ton |
Methanol market freight rate on November 12
Unit: yuan/ton
| the destination | place of receipt | 2024/11/12 | 2024/11/11 | rise and fall |
| Inner Mongolia North Line | lubei | 230-300 | 230-300 | 0/0 |
| Daqi | lubei | 265-300 | 265-300 | 0/0 |
| south line | lubei | 260-290 | 260-290 | 0/0 |
| Shanxi | lubei | 130-170 | 130-170 | 0/0 |
| south line | Lunan | 335-360 | 335-360 | 0/0 |
| Guanzhong | Southwest Shandong | 170-250 | 170-250 | 0/0 |
| Inner Mongolia North Line | Lunan | 320-350 | 320-350 | 0/0 |
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the supply and demand pattern of methanol in China market has not changed much, and demand in the downstream market has recovered slowly. In addition, some downstream stocks still have to be consumed, so it is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. It is expected that the China market may still maintain a situation of oversupply in the short term. Coupled with the weak and volatile futures market, some players have obvious wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook, and transactions remain in demand. At present, while downstream demand is unlikely to improve significantly, there is limited room for bullish market prices in the short term, and the short-term methanol market price range is expected to fluctuate.
