Analysis of PVC futures: On November 11, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5370, the highest price: 5412, the lowest price: 5290, the position: 963353, the settlement price: 5338, yesterday's settlement: 5448, down 110, the daily trading volume: 1067044 lots, the deposited capital: 3.598 billion, and the capital inflow: 127 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in the PVC market in China fell sharply and weakened significantly at the beginning of the week. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 60-80 yuan/ton, East China fell by 70 yuan/ton, South China fell by 40-70 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 70 yuan/ton, Southwest China fell by 100 yuan/ton. Most of the quotes from upstream PVC producers began to lower, but the reduction was different, with a drop of 50-80-100 yuan/ton. The spot market began to operate poorly at the beginning of the week, and the futures market fell sharply. The one-price offer in the spot market fell immediately. However, after the futures price fell, the price advantage was relatively obvious, and the basis for each region narrowed. Among them, the basis for East China was offered for contract 01-(150-180) and South China was 01-(0-80). Contract 01 in the northern region-(360-400), contract 01 in the southwest region-(620), and contract 01 in the partial source-(200). After spot prices fell, low pending orders increased, enthusiasm for inquiries increased, and downstream just needed replenishment, but bought down but not up.
From a futures perspective: After the night trading price of the PVC2501 contract was consolidated in a narrow range, it began to gradually weaken and fell immediately after night trading. Late prices began to consolidate at a low level in early trading, and the low level fell below the 5300 mark. Afternoon prices still performed poorly and were running at a low level. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5,290 to 5,412 throughout the day, with a spread of 122. The 01 contract has increased its position by 44039 lots. As of now, 963353 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5335, with 1067044 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures market significantly increased their positions at the beginning of the week. The market transactions showed that they were open by 25.7% compared with 24.6% more. The open positions in the hands of 44039 were in a suppressed situation. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) is open, the lower track is turning downward, the daily DK line and the MACD line show a dead fork trend, and the low depth of the futures price runs through the lower track support level, and the technical closing line turns to short. The low end of the futures price fell below the 5300 mark, and the lowest point of 5290 was lower than the pre-October low. Judging from the current operating trend and time nodes of the futures price, there may still be a certain operating pressure at the low end of the futures price, and changes in the range of 5250-5400 in the lower rail position will be observed in the short term.
In terms of spot: At the beginning of the week, some commodities fell, trading showed a short trend, and the cultural index also weakened. At the close of noon, China's main futures contracts fell more and more, lithium carbonate rose more than 4%, and palm oil and apples rose more than 2%. In terms of decline, coke fell more than 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), soda ash, glass, butadiene rubber, caustic soda, and manganese silicon fell more than 3%. PVC is also facing a sharp decline, with one-stop offers on the spot market declining. At present, at the supply and demand level, there is a small adjustment in operating rates at the supply port, but it has little impact on the overall spot market. On the demand side, it is buying down but not buying up. As the temperature drops, demand may be expected to weaken further. Judging from the current policy port, the implementation and interpretation policies are basically lower than expected, so the PVC spot market may return to the low range in the short term.
