Analysis of PVC futures: On November 8, the opening price of the V2501 contract was 5459, the highest price was 5505, the lowest price was 5385, the position was 919314, the settlement price was 5448, yesterday's settlement was 5437, up 11, the daily trading volume was 1114654 lots, the deposited funds were 3.471 billion, and the capital inflow was 118 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: The trend of mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market is divided, rising in the morning, falling down at noon, and falling in the afternoon. Comparison of valuations: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 30 yuan/ton, and South China fell by 30 yuan/ton. Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, and Southwest China was stable. Most of the quotations from upstream PVC production companies maintain stable quotations, and some companies even raised their ex-factory quotations by 20 yuan/ton in the morning. Futures first rose and then fell, and afternoon futures prices weakened relatively significantly. Spot market one-stop offers diverged during the day, showing a certain increase in the morning and falling back in the afternoon. Spot prices and one-stop prices coexist. Among them, the basis offer for East China is 01 contract-(160-200), South China 01 contract-(0-100), Northern China 01 contract-(400-460), and Southwest China's partial source of goods shipped out of the factory 01 contract-(630). Overall, there was little support for high prices in the morning session. Real order negotiations were the main focus. Subsequent futures fell by a large margin. The price advantage of point-to-point supply showed, and traders 'one-price offers followed suit.
From a futures perspective: The night futures price of the PVC2501 contract was mainly organized in a narrow range, and the futures price fell slightly within the intraday trading. The price rose significantly in early trading and later periods, reaching a high of 5505, but then the futures price began to decline and weakened further in the afternoon to close at a low level. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5,385 to 5,505 throughout the day, with a spread of 120. The 01 contract has increased its position by 42299 lots. As of now, 919314 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5724, with 142746 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The PVC2501 contract futures market continued to significantly increase its positions by 42299 lots. In terms of transactions, it was 22.8% more open than 26.4% less open. The futures price weakened in the afternoon, especially when the downward trend was obvious in the late session. There were more short orders entering the market. Technical aspects show that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) has a flat opening, and the daily-level DK line and MACD line show a dead fork trend. However, in terms of volatility, the Friday session is still within the recent sideways fluctuations. However, due to the obvious market ups and downs, As a result, certain changes have occurred in the technical closing line and the market is open, the futures price may face certain tests in the short term. Overall, observe the performance of the lower rail support level and the fluctuations in the range of 5,350 - 5,500.
In terms of spot: First of all, the market futures price showed a major change. The trend was good in the morning session and showed a certain upward performance, but the afternoon futures price declined significantly. This also led to a divergence in the spot market quotations. Prices rose in the morning, fell back to the original price at noon, and further small concessions occurred in the afternoon. The market changes many times within a day. From the perspective of PVC supply and demand, there are still no obvious variable stimulus factors. Strong supply, weak demand, high inventory, temporary stability, insufficient price guidance provided by the supply and demand level, and no change has been made on the cost side for the time being. Therefore, the price impact is relatively small. In the external market, in the early morning of November 8, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. Overall, in the short term, it is still difficult for the spot market to get rid of the trend of narrow consolidation and frequent adjustments.
