Analysis of soda ash market
Individual prices in the soda ash market in China fell within a narrow range today. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton. Soda ash plants are stable and small, and the supply is sufficient; while the operating rate of the downstream glass industry has declined, and the rigid demand for heavy alkali has further weakened. Most companies have adopted a wait-and-see attitude; the market is difficult to form a good situation without obvious positive driving forces., and the trading atmosphere is relatively depressed.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on November 6, was 1550 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1517 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.59% within the day. The intraday high was 1570 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1492 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1238399 lots, a month-on-month increase of 19257 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell from high levels, with the overall weak operation dominated. On the one hand, Trump predicted victory in today's U.S. election, and the market gave priority to his negative policies towards China after taking office. The overall macro sentiment in the China market cooled down. On the other hand, yesterday's news of production cuts by manufacturers in Qinghai did not improve the actual contradiction between supply and demand, and emotional trading fell back. In the short term, soda ash itself is still a fundamentally weak variety, and the price suppression is still strong. However, in the short term, there are also support from incremental policy expectations and a strong trend of downstream glass. In the future, it may still be expected to follow the market environment shocks and wait for expectations to be implemented mainly.
market outlook
There are fewer follow-up market maintenance plans, and the supply side remains high; downstream market demand is weak, and procurement is maintained; supply and demand are weak, and the soda ash market is expected to operate weakly in the short term.
